Explained: Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate 

New electric car sales have slightly stagnated in recent months, particularly when it comes to private sales.

Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that more than three-quarters of new electric cars are being purchased by fleets and businesses, where more of the incentives are seen to be.

While 286,000 new electric cars have been registered in the UK in 2023 (up to November), this is a 16.3 per cent market share, which is only marginally above the 15.1 per cent share recorded during the same period in 2022.

From next year, however, manufacturers will have to meet targets of having a certain percentage of all their new car sales to be electric, which is known as the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

But what is the ZEV mandate and what will its impact be? Let’s investigate.

What is the ZEV mandate?

The ZEV mandate is a scheme being introduced by the government to increase the number of electric cars on Britain’s roads ahead of 2035 when all new car and van sales must be fully zero emissions.

It will be introduced in 2024 and will mandate a certain percentage of a manufacturer’s sales are zero-emissions.

What percentage of sales are manufacturers required to meet in the future years?

The ZEV mandate kicks off in 2024, which is the first year manufacturers are required to meet the targets, though these can be delayed. If not, though, car and van firms face getting fines.

Annual ZEV targets have been set from 2024-2030, with the period up to 2035 being detailed later in the decade. The annual targets for ZEV sales can be seen below.

2024 – 22% ZEV mix

2025 – 28% ZEV mix

2026 – 33% ZEV mix

2027 – 38% ZEV mix

2028 – 52% ZEV mix

2029 – 66% ZEV mix

2030 – 80% ZEV mix

In the period between 2030 and 2035, it’s expected there will be increments of 4% each to get to the 100% ZEV sales figure by 2035.

Are all manufacturers included in the ZEV mandate?

The government has acknowledged the importance of small-volume manufacturers in the transition period, and as a result, there are exemptions for manufacturers within the ZEV mandate.

Those selling fewer than 1,000 cars and vans in the UK – which are classed as ‘micro-volume manufacturers’ - aren’t required to meet the ZEV mandate until the end of the decade and are automatically exempt. This is because the government says they might ‘need more time’, and includes firms such as Caterham and Morgan, for example.

Manufacturers registering fewer than 2,500 cars but more than 999 cars and vans a year can submit what’s known as a derogation application, and if accepted, can make them eligible for not having to comply with the ZEV mandate until 2029 with a ‘transitional year in 2030’. Based on current SMMT sales figures, this would include firms such as Alfa Romeo, Bentley and SsangYong.

What if manufacturers don’t currently sell any electric cars or are unable to comply with the ZEV mandate?

While the majority of manufacturers currently sell at least one electric car, there are some quite significant exceptions. Dacia, Land Rover and Suzuki, for example, are well above the threshold and currently don’t offer an electric car. A Range Rover EV and electric Dacia Spring are due in 2024, but Suzuki’s first EV isn’t expected until 2025.

For those firms that either don’t sell an EV yet or are unlikely to meet the mandated ZEV sales mix – such as Ford and Toyota – there will be ways to still be compliant without facing fines.

The first is a scheme based on borrowing credits from other manufacturers with a far greater ZEV mix – such as those only selling EVs like Tesla. The other option manufacturers can use is banking credits for future years – such as firms that currently meet the ZEV mix but might struggle to do so on some occasions.

Manufacturers that have historically had lower CO2 emissions, such as Toyota, will receive ‘short-term support’ to help with the ZEV mandate too, while there will also be ‘pooling’ allowed within a group, such as Dacia being able to utilise Renault’s higher EV sales mix to meet the ZEV mandate.

What will this mean for new car sales?

Manufacturers have already had to meet CO2 emissions targets, but this ZEV mandate does pose a challenge, particularly for manufacturers that currently sell no or few electric cars in relation to their overall sales.

Towards the end of 2023, it’s already been observed that several manufacturers delayed registering their electric cars until 2024 so that they could get an early start. Across the board, manufacturers will be pushing their electric models hard – in terms of advertising, finance offers and general incentives – to try and persuade motorists to have them.

We will likely see a position where some manufacturers cap the number of non-electric cars they sell to secure the required ZEV mix. It’s worth noting that in the UK, using year-to-date figures up until November 2023, only a handful of manufacturers were already at the 22 per cent EV sales mix required for 2024. These include BMW, Cupra, Genesis, Jaguar, Mercedes, MG and Porsche, along with electric-only firms BYD, GWM Ora, Polestar, Smart and Tesla.

What is the potential impact on used car sales?

It’s no secret that used car prices continue to plummet, with steep depreciation across virtually all zero-emissions models. While there are signs of improvement, if there are even more used EVs coming to the market, and there aren’t enough buyers out there, values are unlikely to improve.

We could see a situation where – if manufacturers are unable to sell the number of new non-electric cars to meet demand because of the mandate– buyers choose used cars instead, with the potential for nearly-new petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles to be particularly in demand. This will likely continue to be the case up to 2035 unless there are more incentives in place for private buyers to choose an all-electric vehicle.

For more information and support on EV’s, please see our Dealer's EV Guide.