Increasingly wet and windy
After what has been a particularly good spell of weather for late September with warm temperatures and some prolonged spells of sunshine it would seem it is a case of a change of month, a change of weather
Low pressure to the south-west of the UK has been persistent for several days, but so far has been held at bay due to higher pressure to the east and northeast. That high pressure is set to remain in place through most of the week, but the low pressure to the south-west is set to influence the weather more significantly with active weather fronts bringing an increasing risk of some heavy and possible disruptive rainfall, for some, as the week progresses.
However, before all that the week starts on a relatively quiet theme as weather fronts remain to the west and south-west of the UK. As a result for many areas a dry day is expected with some bright or sunny spells and despite a fresh south-easterly wind it will remain quite warm still, especially inland. Some showers or spells of rain are likely to affect Ireland and parts of SW England during the day and these will become increasingly widespread later on and overnight.
Into Tuesday and a general north-east and south-west split in conditions is expected across the UK. Many areas of Scotland and E England will be influenced, to an extent, by the high pressure to the north-east. This is set to signal another predominantly dry day here with perhaps some bright or sunny spells at times. In contrast the low pressure to the south-west becomes increasingly influential across southern and western areas of the UK with active weather fronts bringing a risk of showers to many southern and south-western areas of England, Wales, perhaps up into the Midlands and more particularly across the whole of Ireland.
At the moment from Wednesday onwards the unsettled conditions are likely to become increasingly influential across many areas, but still with eastern areas of the UK generally experiencing the lowest rainfall totals. In contrast Ireland, Wales, western areas of England and also SW Scotland is at risk of seeing some heavy and persistent rain or showers from midweek onward. I have highlighted which areas are at risk of some of the heaviest rainfall in yellow and it is across these areas that up to 20mm to 30mm of rainfall is possible. I have highlighted the whole of Ireland red however, as at the moment Ireland may well experience up to 40mm to 50mm of rainfall with perhaps a risk of some localised flooding in places.
The other noticeable feature of the weather this week will be a fresh or strong south or south-easterly wind. This is due, primarily to the low pressure trying to ‘move’ the area of high pressure to the north-east out of the way. As a result, particularly from Tuesday onwards quite a windy few days are expected for most areas. Temperatures this week are set to remain near to average, if not perhaps slightly above average for early October. However, the increasingly wet and windy conditions will offset this somewhat and generally it will feel cooler this week, particularly-so for more western areas.
More details on the middle and latter half of the week will be issued by mid-week.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
A Mixed Weekend Ahead
The coming weekends weather won’t be too bad for most of the UK with a drier and cooler south-easterly air mass bringing in a greater risk of some prolonged cloud breaks and hence some bright or sunny spells. It is still expected to feel pleasantly warm for late September as well in the sunshine, but by Sunday a moderate or fresh south-easterly wind may well make it feel cooler than of late.
As usual, however, there are always some exceptions and for parts of the far north and more particularly the far south and south-west of England the weather is set to be more unsettled over the weekend with rain or showers at times, some of which will be heavy. The culprit is low pressure anchored just to the south-west of the UK. This is set to produce a more unsettled and unstable south-easterly air mass across the far south of England and more particularly across south-west England and perhaps south Wales as well. These more unsettled conditions will begin to materialise later today (Friday) as some heavy and perhaps thundery showers develop across these areas. The combination of a risk of showers and longer spells of rain across these areas is bringing the risk of up to 20mm to 30mm of rainfall by the end of the weekend and I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk in yellow;
As mentioned earlier, some rain or showers are also expected across some central and particularly northern areas of Scotland for a time, especially on Saturday, but by Sunday this region should join the majority of the UK in enjoying a predominantly dry day with some bright or sunny spells.
Temperatures, of late, have been a talking point with regards to how warm it has been for the time of year and generally the trend for temperatures to be above average by a few degrees at least is set to continue into the weekend. At the moment maximum temperatures ranging between 15C and 20C are expected generally, with the highest temperatures being reserved for parts of England and Wales where the sunshine is most persistent. Overnight it will turn a little cooler than of late, given clear skies and as mentioned as well the development of a moderate or fresh south-easterly wind by Sunday may also make it ‘feel’ a little cooler, despite temperatures still being quite high for the final weekend in September.
So, in summary, if you live across the south-west of England in particular then prepare for a particularly wet weekend, otherwise for most it looks dry, bright, if not sunny and still pleasantly warm.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Gradually More Unsettled
So far this week the weather has generally been rather benign and as signaled early in the week the primary hazard was mist and fog due to a mild and moist air mass over the UK combining with some clear skies at night. Generally precipitation has been hard to find, with some warm spells of sunshine as well across parts of the UK, despite some variable amounts of cloud which have persisted in some places and brought about quite varied conditions regionally.
The rest of the week is set to produce a further almost indecisive period of weather. Some further bright or sunny spells are possible at times, but weather fronts are expected to bring some outbreaks of rain or showers across west and south-western areas of the UK through Thursday, whilst it is generally drier, sunnier and cooler further north and east. Into Friday and further early mist and fog patches may well be in evidence in places, so watch out for those, but generally many areas will have a dry day with some bright or sunny spells. Once again weather fronts across more western areas of the UK (Ireland, Wales, South-west England) may well lead to some patchy rain or showers, but for many the week is set to end on a mainly dry theme.
Into the weekend and low pressure lurking just to the south-west of the UK is set to become more influential. As a result showers and longer spells of rain are expected to become increasingly influential across southern, southern-west and western areas of the UK through the weekend, whilst some northern and eastern areas maintain a mainly dry, pleasantly warm and bright spell of weather. It should be noted that there are some uncertainties, so some changes to the forecast are possible between now and the end of the week, as the weather patterns remain quite disorganized and in a word ‘messy’.
Full details on the weekend’s weather will be available later in the week.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
A Changeable Week Ahead
September can often be a month in which the weather suddenly goes from being particularly autumnal back to rather summery and that has been the case within the last week or more and as many experienced, some warm spells of sunshine over the recent weekend. The coming week provides further changes, with hints of autumn at times, yet equally some summer-like weather continues to be noticeable as well.
Both Monday and Tuesday are set fair for many areas of the UK as high pressure generally influences the weather. This is set to bring two predominantly dry days to many areas with some bright or sunny spells developing during the day. It is worth placing some significant emphasis on the risk of mist and fog developing by night. This may well be slow to clear each morning, on a more regional scale, and could well bring some difficult travelling conditions during the rush hour period, so this is something to be aware of. Weak weather fronts may herald the risk of some patchy rain or showers across the far north of Scotland and the far south-west of England by the end of Tuesday, but again overall it will be dry for many.
The other noteworthy feature of the early part of the week will be the temperatures. A particularly warm air mass, for the time of year, is in place over the UK and when combining with some sunshine temperatures are set to rise to between 20C and 24C, of which is more suited to maximum temperatures during the middle of summer really. So, if you get some sunshine, then after what may feel like quite an autumnal start, the day will end feeling particularly summery!
From mid-week onwards a slow and gradual change takes place. This change is towards more unsettled conditions as high pressure declines away from the UK. Wednesday, at the moment, is still set to be mainly dry for many areas with again some bright or sunny spells developing once early mist or fog patches clear. Some patchy rain or showers may develop across northern regions of Scotland and also perhaps across south-west England, but overall a dry day is to be expected.
Towards Thursday and the end of the week in general weather fronts are forecast to become more noteworthy over the UK. There are some uncertainties over the details at the moment, but generally a rather cloudy and cooler end to the week is expected for many areas. Some rain or showers may develop at times, particularly so on Thursday at the moment and especially away from south-east England. No widespread heavy rain is expected though and some areas may remain dry. With light winds continuing to end the week where any clear skies do develop by night, especially regionally, then further mist and fog is possible.
At the moment this trend towards unsettled conditions is set to continue into the forth coming weekend and also into early October. As a result it is a case of make the most of the relatively dry and warm conditions this week as it could well be a case of ‘a change of month, a change of weather’ with far more autumnal conditions lurking around the ‘corner’.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Increasingly fine and Settled Weekend
As suggested for some time now the weather is set to become far more settled than compared with the unsettled conditions of late. High pressure is set to become increasingly influential across most areas of the UK over the coming weekend and with many experiencing pressure up to 1020-1024mb by Sunday. As usual however, there are some exceptions…
Saturday is set fair for many central, southern and south-eastern areas of England with some bright or sunny spells and it will feel markedly warmer than of late. Some cloud is likely at times, but generally a dry, bright and warm day is expected. Further north and west however, across Scotland, Ireland, Wales and Northern England a weather front moving up from the south-west is set to bring a cloudy and damp day with some rain or drizzle at times and also with some extensive hill fog, which may cause some difficult driving conditions across higher level routes. It will still be quite a mild day further north and west, especially compared with of late, but despite that a rather cloudy and damp day is likely.
As we move into Sunday any weather fronts are forecast to have cleared to the north of the UK or be located to the west and all areas of the UK are then in a warm and moist south or south-westerly air mass. Cloud is still likely to be most extensive across northern and western areas of the UK and a moderate or fresh south or south-westerly wind is expected here. However, for most of England and Wales a dry day is likely with some bright or sunny spells developing at times which will raise temperatures up to 20C to 22C as a maximum.
At the moment the warm and generally settled conditions are set to continue into the early part of next week, but at the moment a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions are expected from the middle of next week onwards. As usual full details on the week ahead will be available on Monday morning
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Positive Changes Ahead
The weather of late has been distinctly autumnal; about as autumnal as you can get really at this point in September in terms of how low the temperatures have been and also in relation to a number of active areas of low pressure. The remainder of the week will generally maintain an unsettled theme, especially on Thursday as yet another low pressure moves into the UK with its associated weather fronts. This is set to bring a spell of wet and breezy weather eastwards across many areas through Thursday, but generally clearing away to the east quite quickly, another disappointingly cool and wet day is expected for many on Thursday.
Friday sees a weak ridge of high pressure build into the UK from the south-west and this will signal a better day on Friday. Some weather fronts are likely to continue to affect parts of Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland, but generally many areas of the UK will end the week on a dry and fine theme. There will be some bright or sunny spells and with lighter winds it should feel a little warmer.
Now for the good news…As the coming weekend progresses high pressure is forecast to become increasingly influential across the UK, primarily thanks to the remnants of tropical storm Humberto. As can be the case at this time of year remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes enter into the North Atlantic. Sometimes they can aid to deepen low pressure systems further and bring more significant spells of wet and windy conditions to the UK, but equally they can also change the way the jet stream is across the North Atlantic and allow for warmer and more settled conditions to develop and that is what is set to happen.
So, just a few more days of cool and unsettled conditions to contend with, then it’s time for what could be classed as an “Indian Summer”, though it is a little early in the autumn really for it to be officially labeled that. However, that aside the outlook for the weekend and well into next week is for temperatures to become above average, so feeling warm, it will be dry with bright or sunny spells but overnight mist and fog may well become quite a frequent occurrence.
More details on the weekend will be issued on Friday…
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Seven Days of SORT
So another busy and diverse week for the team, once again showing that here at the AA we are about more than just flat batteries
Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT
Autumnal Week Ahead
The coming week will provide a distinct example of some rather autumnal conditions as low pressure and rather chilly conditions dominate the weather across many areas of the UK. The week starts with the recent weekend’s low pressure to the north of the UK, dominating proceedings. This low pressure is maintaining a rather cold north-westerly wind across many areas of the UK and this will continue to bring the risk of squally showers across Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and Wales in particular through the rest of Monday. Some of the showers will be heavy at times, with gusty winds and will also fall as snow across the hills and mountains of Scotland.
As we progress into Tuesday and a particularly poor day is expected for many areas of England, Wales and Ireland in particular, whilst Scotland maintains a risk of further showery conditions. An area of low pressure is forecast to move across Ireland, Wales and parts of England during the day before clearing away to the south-east later. As a result a cloudy and wet day is expected with light or moderate, locally heavy rain moving generally west to east through the day and it will also be quite windy across southern counties of England and through the English Channel in particular with gales possible in places.
Mid week and we see a return to a mixture of sunshine and showers across many areas. Low pressure remains influential just to the north and east of the UK and this will produce a cool north-westerly air mass across many areas and again this will provide a mixture of sunshine and showers for most areas. A lot of the showers are expected to clear later in the day and a chilly night is expected on Wednesday night and into Thursday ahead of further wet and windy conditions developing from the west.
As we move into Thursday and another Atlantic low pressure system with its associated frontal systems will move into the UK. As a result, after a dry and rather chilly start for some eastern areas of the UK a spell of wet and windy conditions are expected to move from west to east across the UK through the day and this then clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers to end the day. At the moment Friday is expected to be one of the best days of the week as high pressure builds into the UK from the south-west. Whilst some showers remain possible, overall many areas are currently forecast to end the week predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells at times.
So as you can see the week ahead is generally unsettled with some particularly cool and wet conditions expected early in the week and then also again on Thursday. Temperatures throughout this coming week will generally be below average for mid-September and it will feel cold in any persistent wet weather and wind. At the moment maximum temperatures ranging between 9C and 13C are expected across northern and western areas of the UK, whilst further south temperatures range between 12C and 16C generally. Some chilly nights are also possible, especially across rural areas where skies clear for any length of time and at the moment Tuesday night and Wednesday night are likely to produce the lowest temperatures.
Some early good news! Next weekend may well revert back to some late summer-like conditions as high pressure becomes more influential and combines with a milder south-westerly wind. So whilst the week ahead isn’t look particularly good, next weekend may well provide some particularly pleasant conditions.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Autumnal Weekend – Turning Wet and Windy
The coming weekend will produce the first spell of wet and very windy conditions of the autumn in association with a deep area of low pressure passing just to the north of the UK. This feature won’t arrive until Sunday and will maintain a threat of some very strong winds into Monday as well. As a result Saturday will be the best day of the weekend for most people. Let’s take a look in more detail…
At the moment a developing area of low pressure is being analysed by higher resolution weather models and is set to move across central and southern areas of England and Wales this evening (Friday) and overnight into Saturday. As a result a wet start is expected across many central and southern areas of England into Saturday morning. Outbreaks of rain or showers are expected but they will gradually clear away to the east of the UK as the day progresses with brighter and drier conditions developing from the West. Many northern and western areas of the UK (Scotland, Ireland and Northern England) will generally have a predominantly dry day with some bright or sunny spells, though some early rain is possible across Northern England. By late Saturday the deepening area of low pressure is expected to the south of Iceland.
As we move into Sunday a particularly autumnal day is expected nationwide. At the moment an area of low pressure with a central pressure near 968mb is expected to be located just to the east of south-east of Iceland. Active weather fronts associated with the low pressure are set to move down across many areas bringing a spell of wet and windy conditions to most areas, but with the heaviest rain being reserved for more northern areas of the UK. Following on behind the more persistent rain will be blustery showers, initially across Scotland and Ireland during Sunday afternoon before then spreading further south-east overnight on Sunday.
For Scotland, Ireland and Northern England a core of strong or gale force winds are then expected to develop later in the day on Sunday and overnight into Monday. At the moment mean wind speeds across these areas are set to range between 25mph and 35mph, but with frequent gusts up to 40-50mph and with a possibility that coasts and hills may see gusts up to 60mph. I have highlighted on the associated graphic which areas are at risk of the strongest winds (gusts 40-50mph and above) during late Sunday and through into Monday in red and with a lower risk across the areas highlighted yellow;
The combination of strong winds and some heavy and squally showers later on Sunday and into Monday morning across these areas will produce some particularly poor travelling conditions, especially for high sided vehicles. Some disruption to marine travel is possible as well, especially through the Irish Sea and Scottish Island routes.
So, in summary, it is definitely time to pack away the summer garden furniture, or at least fasten it down, as the first spell of wet and very windy weather of the autumn is expected during Sunday and into the early part of next week.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Casey's Drive In
A 1950’s style drive in cinema experience organised but stunt-woman sisters, benefiting a fantastic Charity. What else is there to say, I can stop writing now and go for a cuppa…..
Ok, you’ll probably want to know a little more. On the evenings of 14th and 15th September, viewers will turn up in their cars to Cheval Stud in Winkfield, Berkshire, where they will find themselves transported back to a 1950s-style American drive-in. The Cinema is the brain child of local sisters Casey and Carly, they hope that the drive-in brings local people together in a fun and novel environment, and if the event proves a success they plan to organize more screenings for future years.
So help make it a success by buying a ticket and coming along. AA Rewards members Save 10% on Casey's Drive-in Cinema ticket prices too! The two films chosen to for this weekend are family favorites Musical 'Grease' 1978 & Disney Pixar 'Ratatouille' shown on the 14th & 15th September respectively. If you’d like to know more check out their website. If I have sold it to you, you are an AA Rewards member and you'd like a discounted ticket then this is your link.
Interestingly both sisters are qualified stunt women who have doubled for actresses such as Keira Knightley and Catherine Zeta Jones and appeared in films like Kick Ass 2 and Skyfall. We will all have to be on our best behavior.
“What about that fantastic charity you mentioned earlier!” I hear you all cry…. Well it is the magnificent Sebastian’s Action Trust. The charity have created the UK's only purpose-built facility that offers respite holidays to very sick children and their families, enabling precious time to be spent together. Raffle tickets will be sold both nights with all money generously going to this great charity.
I’m sure you are thinking, well this all sounds lovely but what does it have to do with the AA and specifically AA SORT? Well the answer is that we will be there too, on both nights. We’ll have some of our historic vehicles on show; but most crucially we’ll be providing breakdown cover to anyone who manages to breakdown while watching the film.
Hopefully you won’t need us, but if you see the AA guys pop over and say hello, they don’t bite. Our Boss man Darron will be there too (that's him at the bottom of the page), what more could you possibly ask for.
Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT
Remaining Unsettled – Wet and Windy By Sunday
So far this week we have had a mixture of sunshine and showers with some thunderstorms to start the week and this was then followed by a particularly cool and damp day across eastern areas of England on Tuesday, whilst elsewhere it was generally dry and bright. The rest of the week is set to generally become unsettled nationwide with rain or showers for all of us and early indications are for a very autumnal end to the weekend.
Today (Wednesday) sees weather fronts moving down from the north-west to the south-east across the country. As a result cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain are expected to spread down across Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and later into Wales, the Midlands and Southern England, but by this point most of the rainfall will be light. Into Thursday and another set of frontal systems are forecast to move into the UK from the west, in association with lower pressure to the north and north-west of the UK. As a result a cloudy and damp day is expected for many areas with some hill fog expected across western areas of the country at times and with a zone of light or moderate, locally heavy rain move eastwards through the day.
A brief respite in the more unsettled conditions is then expected for most of Scotland, Ireland and Northern England on Friday now and this is in association with a minor ridge of high pressure. However, quite a complex situation is expected for more southern areas of England with a frontal wave expected to develop through the day and overnight into Saturday. What this is expected to do is bring a persistent risk of some rain to southern areas of England and perhaps South Wales late in the week and into Saturday. At the moment a general 20mm to 30mm of rainfall is possible, but perhaps with higher totals. I have highlighted the areas at risk on the associated graphic but it should be emphasized there remains some uncertainties over this particular development.
Early indications for the weekend is that any rain in the south early on Saturday will clear and this will then leave many areas seeing a mixture of sunshine and few showers in what will most certainly be the best day of the weekend after a chilly start across northern areas. However, by Sunday a rapidly developing area of low pressure is expected to develop just to the north of the UK and bring a particularly autumnal day to many areas on Sunday as a zone of rain moves north-west to south-east across many areas, but with the heaviest precipitation being restricted across northern and western areas of the country.
Of particularly concern as well is the potential development of gales across northern areas of the country and this combination with some heavy precipitation may well lead to some difficult travelling conditions. I have highlighted which areas are currently at greatest risk of some heavy precipitation and strong or gale force winds on Sunday on the associated graphic.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Our Good friends at Watersafe UK Search and Rescue Team (WUKSART) are taking on a very special challenge starting today. They will be attempting to circumnavigate the entire coastline of Britain in a small Rigid Inflatable Boat (RIB) to raise much needed funds for both their own work and that of the Royal National Lifeboat Institute (RNLI).
This unique challenge will be a great test to all involved as they aim to circumnavigate 1,999 miles of British coastline in just 9 days, 9 hours and 9 minutes. The event started today at Poole in Dorset which is the Headquarters of the RNLI and in a clockwise direction will stop off at certain RNLI lifeboat stations situated at strategic points along the British coastline with the event eventually finishing again at Poole lifeboatstation.
They have raised a bucketload of money offline but they will gladly take anything you may be able to give… http://www.justgiving.com/nine-nine-nine-coastal-challenge Their First stop is Bude, so if you see them, pop down and say hello
We hope to be able to keep you updated with their progress over the next 9 days.
Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT
Another Mixed Week Ahead
After some lively weather this past weekend the coming week will provide quite a varied set of conditions across the UK with some areas experiencing some drier and brighter conditions, but equally some wet and windy weather is also expected at times.
The week starts on a chilly theme due to high pressure being influential to the west and south-west of the UK whilst combining with lower pressure just to the east. This is set to produce a cool northerly air flow over many areas of the UK through the day and bring a mixture of sunshine and showers. Some of the showers during the afternoon could be heavy and some localised downpours and thunderstorms are possible, especially across eastern areas of England in particular.
Into Tuesday and a distinct east and west split in conditions is expected. This is due to high pressure being more influential across western areas of the UK and producing a general mixture of sunshine and showers. However, low pressure over the North Sea is set to bring a particularly autumnal day to many eastern areas of England and across East Anglia in particular. I have highlighted on the associated image which areas are at risk of seeing some locally heavy showers or longer spells of rain on Tuesday, but this will be combined with a strong or perhaps near gale force north or north-westerly wind to produce a particularly chilly and autumnal day.
As we progress through into Wednesday high pressure is forecast to bring a more settled day for most of England and Wales, at least for a time. As a result some dry and bright conditions are expected with some sunny spells in the south. However, relatively weak weather fronts initially across Scotland and Ireland are likely to move down into Northern England through the day and thus bring a rather cloudy and damp afternoon and evening to most of Scotland, Ireland and Northern England whilst southern areas remain generally dry.
Further weather fronts are then expected to affect the UK to end the week and especially on Thursday when further showers or longer spells of rain develop across many northern and western areas, but no significant or extreme rainfall totals are expected at the moment. Some rain or showers are also likely further south, but generally precipitation in the south is likely to remain quite light overall. Some drier and brighter weather may develop across Scotland by Friday, but with a few showers remaining possible.
Temperatures this week are forecast to be generally around average really for this time in September. Quite a cool start to the week is expected with highs ranging between 13C and 19C across the country. By mid-week temperatures may reach 20C or 21C in the south, but still generally range between 14C and 18C elsewhere. Later in the week temperatures may well reach near 20C once again in the south, but this will be the exception with many areas of the UK experiencing temperatures ranging between 13C and 18C still, which again is near average for the time of year.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
The Weekend Ahead
The AA will be kept busy off the road as well as on it this weekend. We will have a significant presence at a number of summer events. If you are lucky enough to see the guys, give them wave;
If you are fortunate enough to be heading to one of the many excellent events this weekend, then from everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend! If the car parks get muddy, then follow our advice!
Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT
Joint Training - Dartmoor Search and Rescue
This week saw another in our series of joint training exercises with other organisations. We were delighted to be invited by Dartmoor Search and rescue to take part in an evening training exercise on the River Dart.
We were pleased to send a full Swiftwater Rescue Technician (SRT) Team down to Devon and train alongside other responders. The other teams in attendance were Exmoor Search and Rescue, North Dartmoor Search & Rescue, Dartmoor Rescue Plymouth, Devon Cave Rescue and our hosts Dartmoor Rescue Ashburton.
The evening began in true multi agency training tradition by splitting up the attending teams into new combined teams. This gives those taking part a chance to learn new skills and working practices from other organisations. There were 3 separate scenarios taking place all involving seriously injured casualties. Teams were dispatched to search for the missing people and these were followed by full SRT capabilities. All casualties were safely located, stabilised and rescued.
Joint training exercises such as this are invaluable in creating a better understanding of the capabilities of different responders and help enable better working for real life multi-agency responses to flooding. The Team all reported back that they found the session to be excellent training of key skills and were glad to meet the wonderful volunteer search and rescue groups from across Devon. We very much hope to undertake more training with them in the future.
Ian, your man on Twitter over @AASORT
Heavy Rain on The Way
Following on from yesterday’s blog, the latest forecast model data and weather charts have really increased the signal for some heavy precipitation for parts of the UK through the end of the week and into the coming weekend. This is still directly associated with an area of low pressure that develops in situ across the UK to end the week and also then persists over the UK throughout the coming weekend bringing a far more autumnal period of weather than compared with the last few days.
The low pressure develops over the UK during Friday in association with the introduction of cooler air spreading down from the north and north-west then combining with warmer air just to the east of the UK. The synoptic pattern is particularly complex given that the low pressure is expected to be in a state of development over a number of days. At the moment the low pressure and its associated weather fronts are likely to affect a large portion of the UK, but at the moment there is focus for central areas of the UK to be at greatest risk and I have highlighted this on the associated graphic.
At the present time parts of Northern England in particular between Friday and Sunday may well experience up to and over 50mm to 60mm of rain with a subsequent risk of flooding, especially in prone areas and this region is highlighted pink. A risk of 40mm to 50mm exists within the red area. This does seem to be quite a large area, but this is due to the fact there is still some uncertainty over the developments in the coming days. However, North Wales, Midlands, Southern Scotland and across towards Northern Ireland and Eastern areas of the Republic of Ireland may see some very wet weather as well. A lower risk (yellow areas) then extends away from this central region.
In conjunction with the heavy rain will also be some strong winds with perhaps a risk of gales in places around the main area of low pressure across coasts and hills in particular. The strong winds are likely to coincide within the areas highlighted pink and red on the associated image as well. So in summery be prepared for a particularly inclement period of weather over the coming days as we abruptly say ‘goodbye’ to summer and ‘hello’ to autumn with a particularly wet and windy period of weather coming up to end the week and persist well into the weekend with rain and showers for many, but especially through central areas of the country in particular.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
From Summer to Autumn In 48 Hours
As highlighted at the beginning of the week temperatures were set to rise through this coming week, peaking around the middle of the week before a cooler end to the week. That process has developed nicely and for now, at least, the UK lies beneath a very warm and quite humid air mass, but changes are expected due to a cold front moving down from the north-west later in the week.
Wednesday and Thursday for most of England and Wales are set fair with some very warm temperatures indeed for early September. At the moment temperatures today (Wednesday) are likely to range between 23C to 26C, though temperatures across the south-east are set to rise up to 27C or 28C. Into Thursday they may even rise a little higher with urban areas of the south-east at risk of temperatures reaching near 30C, again particularly high now for this time of year.
However, within this blog I want to focus on the change that will soon develop later on Thursday and into Friday and beyond. The cold front moving down from the north-west will introduce much cooler conditions across Scotland and Ireland during Wednesday and into Thursday. This process continues during the end of the week. However, in what is forecast to be quite a complex weather pattern the meeting of a markedly cooler air mass combining with some very warm air is set to lead to the development of low pressure by the end of the week. As a result by Friday many areas of the UK are set to be at risk of showers or longer spell’s of rain, with some heavy rain or showers possible at times. Not only that but temperatures may well be 7 or 8 degrees lower than on Thursday across parts of England and Wales and when combined with more unsettled conditions the end of the week will feel markedly different than the previous 48 hours.
Some central and eastern areas of England may experience up to 20mm to 30mm locally to end the week, but at the moment the risk of any widespread heavy and disruptive rainfall is thought to be quite low. That being said and as is often the case at this time of year, quite a rapid change in weather conditions are expected within the space of 48 hours to end the week. So if you’re a fan of the lingering summer warmth and sunshine, you may not like what is coming by the end of the week, but equally if you’ve just about had enough of summer, then a more autumnal feel is just around the corner.
More details on the end of the week and the coming weekend, which at the moment looks cool and quite unsettled, will be issued, as usual, later in the week…
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist
Often Dry and Warm, but More Unsettled Later
Well, there goes the three summer months and from a meteorologists point of view the start of September is the start of autumn and of which encompasses the months of September, October and November. September can often be a month of varying conditions with late summer warmth possible, as will happen this week, but then particularly beyond mid-month the weather can become far more autumnal with wind and rain becoming more frequent and noteworthy.
However, for the first opening week of September high pressure and warm conditions are forecast to be influential for a large portion of the UK. As is often the case there is an exception to this rule which will be discussed shortly but overall for most of England and Wales it is expected to be dry, often sunny and warm up to mid-week.
So Monday and Tuesday sees high pressure building up into the UK and especially England and Wales from the south-west, with atmospheric pressure rising to at least 1020-1024mb, if not higher during Monday in particular. This is set to bring predominantly dry conditions with some bright or sunny spells, especially across southern and south-eastern areas of England. Thicker cloud may well be in evidence across western up-slopes of Wales and Northern England which may produce some patchy rain or drizzle, but overall most of England and Wales is set fair and warm for the start of the week. Weather fronts passing close to the north and west of Scotland will maintain a risk of thicker cloud here, a stronger south-westerly wind and also the risk of some rain or showers at times.
As we approach the middle of the week, Wednesday is once again set to be warm or even very warm for early September across England and Wales with some bright or sunny spells. At the moment maximum temperatures ranging between 22C and 25C is highly likely across inland areas of England and Wales, and between 15C and 20C for Scotland and Ireland. However, across more northern and western areas of the UK weather fronts will still be in evidence, as a result showers or longer spells of rain are expected across a large portion of Scotland and Ireland during Wednesday.
As we progress through towards the end of the week a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions is expected nationwide as high pressure declines and lower pressure becomes more influential over the UK, but at this stage in the week some uncertainties do exist. However, at the moment, the weather front across Scotland and Ireland on Wednesday is set to move south-eastwards during Thursday bringing rain and cloudier conditions further south and east and this trend is set to continue into Friday.
At the same time high pressure may well build into more northern and western areas to end the week bringing a cool but dry end to the week here whilst more southern and eastern areas of England in particular generally remain more unsettled. As highlighted compared with earlier in the week many areas will end the week markedly cooler than say Tuesday and Wednesday and at the present time maximum temperatures later in the week are forecast to range between 15C and 20C across all areas by Friday and perhaps a few degrees cooler than that for Scotland and Ireland.
Matt Hugo, Meteorologist