Emergency breakdown

November 2013

View our older posts from The AA Special Operations Response Team (AASORT) and expert meteorologist Matthew Hugo.

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November blog posts

Friday 29 November, 8am

Cold and bright on Saturday, cloudy and grey on Sunday

  • Mainly dry for many areas this weekend
  • Best of the sunshine on Saturday but with a chilly northerly wind
  • Some overnight frost and fog possible
  • Generally becoming cloudier through Sunday

The coming weekend will maintain a settled theme overall

During Saturday high pressure to the south-west will extend a ridge of high pressure across most areas leading to a predominantly dry and bright day. Some sunny spells are expected, particularly for England and Wales after a chilly start.

Across Scotland a milder west or north-westerly air flow is expected to produce cloudy and potentially damp conditions overnight on Saturday, while for England and Wales some cloud breaks will lead to some localised frost and fog patches.

Sunday sees the high pressure build into the UK and centered over Ireland. This will bring fine and settled conditions with some bright or sunny spells at times, though overall Sunday is likely to see a return to low cloud leading to a particularly grey day in places. Any overnight fog across England and Wales will be slow to clear through Sunday, maintaining rather chilly conditions, but otherwise temperatures will generally be near to average.

Cold Weather Next Week:

There continues to be a clear signal within the medium and longer term weather models for the possibility of colder conditions developing across the UK during the middle and latter half of next week.

A week is a long time but there is growing confidence that a colder and wintry spell of weather will develop as next week progresses due to the potential development of high pressure to the west and north-west of the UK combining with lower pressure to the east and north-east producing a possible northerly air mass over most areas. This may well bring snow to northern areas in particular and a greater risk of widespread frosts and some icy patches.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Map

Wednesday 27 November, 5pm

AA SORT Workload Hotspots

More than half (54%) of UK drivers would endanger themselves and their vehicles by driving through moving flood water, according to a joint Environment Agency and AA survey

The AA-Populus survey of 21,165 AA members also revealed that more than a quarter (27%) of respondents would drive through moving flood water deeper than 30cm, which is enough to move a car.

Here at AA SORT we recently compiled a list of locations where we have seen th greatest flood or water related call outs. Perhaps unsurprisingly locations where cars have to ford a river or stream made up 60% of our top ten locations.

The AA attended 9,000 cars in 2012 that had either driven through or were stuck in flood water. When combined with the news that 77% of all motor claims for water damage result in a total loss that is a lot of unhappy motorists.

For the full results of our survey please see here. Take a moment to make yourself flood aware, know the dangers and please Think, Don't Sink!

Wednesday 27 November, 9am

18 million UK drivers Could End up in Deep Water

flood infographic

  • The AA attended 9,000 cars in 2012 that had either driven through or were stuck in flood water
  • 32% of flood related deaths are by drowning in a vehicle
  • 77% of claims for flood damage to a vehicle result in a total loss.

More than half (54%) of UK drivers would endanger themselves and their vehicles by driving through moving flood water, according to a joint Environment Agency and AA survey.

The AA-Populus survey of 21,165 AA members also revealed that more than a quarter (27%) of respondents would drive through moving flood water deeper than 30cm, which is enough to move a car.

The Environment Agency and the AA strongly advise not entering flood water that is moving or more than 10cm deep.

Survey results

  • More than two-fifths (42%) of drivers would blindly follow the vehicle in front if it had crossed a flooded road successfully.
  • The equivalent of 680,000 drivers would ignore a ‘road closed’ warning sign and drive down a flooded road rather than take a short detour – this is dangerous, an offence and insurers could reject any flood damage claim.
  • People aged between 55 and 64 are most likely to risk driving through the deepest flowing flood water (up to 34cm).
  • Men would attempt to drive through deeper water (up to 34cm) than women (up to 27cm).
  • Those living in North East England would attempt to drive through deeper water (up to 34cm) than anywhere else in the UK.

Cars written off

Darron Burness, head of the AA’s flood rescue team, said: "The 9,000 vehicles driven into flood water that the AA attended last year tell only half the story. There are thousands of other drivers who, perhaps unwittingly, came so close to coming a cropper.

"Three-quarters of cars that get stuck are written-off as it only takes a tiny amount of ingested water to wreck the engine.

"You're also putting yourself at risk as flood water can mask all manner of hazards, for example open manholes, and just one foot or 30 centimetres of moving water can float your car.

"Moving flood water, particularly, is powerful, relentless and deceptively dangerous, so just stay out."

We are urging drivers to be flood aware; those in areas at risk of flooding should check the Environment Agency website for the latest information and sign up for free flood warnings on the Environment Agency’s website or by calling the Environment Agency Flood Line on 0845 988 1188. As for the message from me, please Think, Don't Sink!

 

Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT

Wednesday 27 November, 8am

Mild and Damp, then Colder by Friday

  • The rather benign conditions continuing through today (Wednesday) and Thursday with mild temperatures as well.
  • Low cloud and hill fog a likely hazard in the next 48hrs.
  • Turning colder for many through Friday as a north-westerly wind develops.

As highlighted at the beginning of the week high pressure would be dominant through the week and so far that is the case. The position of the high pressure has been crucial in the day-to-day type of weather influencing the UK. At the beginning of the week with the high pressure more dominant over the UK then this maintained the rather cold and frosty theme, but over the last 24 hours a progression towards increasingly cloudier, damp and milder conditions from the north has developed.

That trend will continue through today (Wednesday) and into Thursday with many areas rather cloudy, despite some brighter intervals at times. More northern and western areas of the UK in particular are likely to experience the most extensive cloud which may produce some patchy light rain and drizzle and also some extensive hill fog is possible, for example across the Pennines. However, the greatest chance of some brighter intervals through Wednesday and Thursday is to the east of high ground.

A change does take place later in the day on Thursday and then through Friday. An area of low pressure moving across the north of the UK will introduce a clearer and colder air mass from the north-west through Friday. This change will come behind a south-eastward moving cold front which will bring some rain or showers southwards across most areas through Thursday night and into Friday. The change in air mass will mean showers across the north may turn wintry through the day on Friday, especially above 300m-400m. It will feel noticeably colder as well by Friday, given a strong north or north-westerly wind.

The colder weather is very short lived however as by the weekend, at the moment, we are back to square one in that high pressure will be just to the west and south-west of the UK and is likely to maintain settled conditions, but the cloudier, damp and milder weather will once again return over the top of the high pressure to lead to a rather grey and nondescript weekend in terms of weather. Full details, as ever, later in the week…

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 26 November, 1pm

This Week at AA SORT

SORT 4x4 training

  • The AA SORT management team are in London today with AA President Edmund King to meet with UK Resilience. Exercise Berwyn a multi agency flooding exercise earlier this year was sponsored by UK Resilience and they will be discussing The AA’s approach to Corporate Social Responsibility.
  • Some of the team are on a 4x4 course this week in South Wales. We are pleased to welcome a representative of West Midlands Fire Service on the course this week too.
  • We have been working with the Environment Agency on a flood awareness piece that you’ll see tomorrow. The results of the AA/Populus survey make worrying reading.
  • Darron and the Ops team are preparing for an assessment by Defra of our Type C flood rescue status

So, whilst it is all quiet on the weather front, the team are busy as ever.

Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT

Tuesday 26 November, 8am

Turn Around Don't Drown

Cornwall F&R logo

  • Cornwall Fire and Rescue have launched an excellent campaign to raise awareness of the dangers of flood water.
  • The campaign entitled Turn Around Don’t Drown is designed to make Drivers think twice about driving through water by highlighting the dangers
  • AA SORT’s National manager John Seymour went and supported some filming by BBC spotlight at the Cardiff White Water Centre recently
  • You can see the final piece that was broadcast this week here on the BBC iPlayer and it features between times 12.43 to 14:40.

Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT

Monday 25 November, 9am

Mainly Dry but More Unsettled by Friday

  • High pressure is set to remain a dominant feature of the weather and maintain predominantly dry conditions.
  • Overnight frost and fog possible early in the week
  • More unsettled on Friday and briefly turning colder
  • Temperatures generally near or slightly below average

The majority of the coming week will maintain high pressure and settled conditions across most areas, with some bright or sunny spells at times, especially early in the week.

Through Monday and Tuesday, pressure up to 1040mb, which is a particularly high pressure reading, will be in evidence across western and south-western areas of the UK. The high pressure will maintain the theme of predominantly dry conditions for most with some bright or sunny spells by day but with some cloud around.

The cloud is a difficult feature to forecast in terms of where most of it will be. Some further frost and fog is expected, but persistent cloud, particularly by night, will reduce the risk considerably.

Across Scotland a milder west or south-westerly air mass is expected to develop over the top of the high pressure, through Monday and into Tuesday, increasing cloud here and bringing milder conditions with some patchy rain and drizzle at times.

Mid-week (Wednesday and into Thursday) will see high pressure persistent just to the west or south-west of the UK bringing weak frontal systems moving over the top of the high and down into the UK. As a result the mid-week period is set to be mostly cloudy across many areas with limited bright or sunny spells. The cloud may be thick enough at times to produce some patchy rain or drizzle. It will be milder than earlier in the week with overnight temperatures in particular, much higher bringing a much reduced risk of frost and fog.

The week is expected to end on a more active note as the high pressure is set to decline into the Atlantic and low pressure passes to the north of the UK. A cold front is expected to move from north-west to south-east across all areas producing windier conditions with a spell of rain or showers. Behind this weather front, colder air will move down into the UK renewing the risk of frost. The air will be cold enough for wintry precipitation and some sleet and snow showers are expected across Scotland in particular by the end of Friday.

So, in summary remaining mainly dry for most until Friday but expect some overnight frost and fog early in the week. Mostly cloudy and milder for many mid-week, perhaps some patchy rain or drizzle and then turning colder for all on Friday as a weather front moves south-eastwards across the UK.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 22 November, 9am

Fine and Settled, Remaining Cold

  • High pressure is expected to bring a fine and settled weekend for many
  • Overnight frost, fog and freezing fog patches expected, especially across Central and Western areas of the UK.
  • Temperatures generally slightly below or below average so remaining rather cold, especially where fog lingers by day.

The coming weekend will be dominated by high pressure. The high is situated just to the west of the UK through today (Friday) but over the weekend will build eastwards into the UK with atmospheric pressure through the middle of the weekend ranging between 1026mb and 1032mb across many areas of the UK. This area of high pressure is the reason for the predominantly settled conditions.

The weekend whilst mostly settled across many areas, provides a scenario in which ‘the devil is in the detail’ as whilst some bright or sunny spells are expected variable amounts of cloud are as well. As a result whilst both Saturday and Sunday will provide some bright or sunny spells, especially across central and western areas of the UK some cloud is likely, particularly across Scotland and also down eastern and south-eastern areas of England. The cloud will be important during the overnight period in particular as where any cloud is more extensive this will limit the risk of overnight frosts and fog.

Saturday

Saturday is forecast to start cold with a widespread frost across many areas of England, Wales and Ireland and some fog and freezing fog patches are expected. At the moment; S Scotland, Ireland, NW England, Midlands, Wales and SW England look the primary regions for fog overnight on Friday and into Saturday morning. Some of the fog will be dense and particularly where temperatures have dropped below freezing as well then the fog may well linger all day to produce a particularly cold day locally. Otherwise bright or sunny spells are then expected to develop as Saturday progresses, but cloud is likely to increase across Scotland and again perhaps across E and SE England.

Sunday

Overnight on Saturday and through into Sunday the same rules apply. Where any cloud remains then frost and fog will be limited and it would seem that the lowest risk of frost and fog will be across eastern and south-eastern areas of England. Further north and west cloud breaks are currently expected so once again frost and fog is possible by Sunday morning and the fog may again linger well into Sunday in some locations leading to a particularly cold day. Otherwise any fog will clear and despite some cloud further bright or sunny spells are expected.

Temperatures over the weekend will generally range between 4C and 8C. Temperatures will be particularly influenced by cloud amounts by night. Where skies remain clear for longest and lows ranging between -4C and 0C are expected and where fog lingers into the daytime then temperatures may well only struggle to near freezing or just a degree or two above. Equally where cloud is more persistent by night then temperatures will remain near or slightly above freezing.

So in summary a fine and settled weekend is expected for many areas of the UK. Overnight frost and fog primary hazards to be aware of, otherwise it is a quiet and benign weekend with variable amounts of cloud but also some sunshine as well.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 20 November, 9am

Remaining Cold and Wintry

  • Increasingly fine and settled through the rest of the week and into the weekend as high pressure develops
  • Overnight frost remaining a risk and areas of fog and freezing fog a possible hazard in the coming days.
  • Temperatures slightly below or below average so remaining rather cold despite some sunshine and lighter winds.

The weather so far this week has indeed become distinctly wintry with overnight frosts, icy patches and also some snow in places. The predicted wet and windy spell of weather mid-week has also arrived with some particularly strong winds for many western areas of the UK along with a zone of heavy rain and showers moving southwards across England and Wales.

The progression through the rest of the week and into the weekend is for high pressure to become increasingly influential over the UK. Initially to the west through Thursday, the high pressure is forecast to build eastwards over most areas with time and become the dominant feature leading to a particularly benign and settled period of weather. Thursday, however, will maintain a risk of more unsettled conditions for southern and eastern areas of England in particular with rain or showers at times, some perhaps wintry on highest ground. A moderate or fresh north-easterly wind will maintain a significant wind-chill factor for England and Wales, so feeling cold. Further north and west it generally becomes increasingly fine and settled.

The week finishes with the high pressure building into the UK. As a result with the exception of some patchy light rain across the far north of Scotland and the risk of some further showers across the far south-east of England the day is set fair with bright or sunny spells at times and with variable amounts of cloud. The sunshine is likely to be most prevalent across western areas of the UK. Overnight frost is possible in places, especially where cloud remains broken for longest overnight along with some mist and fog patches as well.

Weekend Preview:

The weekend, at the moment, is set to continue the trend from Friday with many areas generally become fine and settled. There remain some uncertainties over the details in terms of cloud amounts as this will have an influence on overnight temperatures in particular and the risk of frost. One potential hazard that does seem as though it is likely to become an increasing risk is overnight fog or freezing fog patches. Again it is likely to be more western areas of the UK that is a risk given that, at the moment, more western regions of the UK are likely to experience the most broken cloud by night. Where any fog does develop it could be very slow to clear the following day, perhaps lingering all day in places and this will lead to locally very cold conditions.

Overnight frosts remain a persistent risk and despite some bright or sunny spells by day temperatures will continue to be rather cold and generally below average. At the moment highs ranging between 4C and 8C are expected, but again locally temperatures may well struggle to just a few degrees above freezing where any fog develops and lingers.

Usual run-down and analysis on the weekend coming up later in the week, but there is quite high confidence in the forecast at the moment, despite some uncertainties over the local details with regards to which areas are at greatest risk of fog, but these will be highlighted on Friday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 18 November, 8am

Cold and Wintry Week Ahead

  • Turning colder for many areas of the UK through today (Monday) as north or north-westerly winds develop.
  • Wintry showers (hail, sleet, snow) possible across northern and western areas later today and into Tuesday, some accumulations above 200-250m.
  • Wet and windy for many areas mid-week, risk of gales, feeling particularly cold and raw.
  • Temperatures generally slightly below or below average with overnight frosts and icy patches expected.

So far this autumn conditions have been generally mild, if not at times, very mild. However, that is all set to change this week as the first ‘taste’ of winter arrives from the north and north-west of the UK. This change is set to take place during the course of today; a weather front moving south-eastwards across the UK marks the boundary between colder air filtering down from the north and relatively mild conditions of the past weekend.

weather map

Showers are forecast to turn increasingly to sleet and snow across Scotland, Ireland and later today and overnight into Tuesday, across Wales and North-west England. Some accumulations are possible, particularly above 200-250m. I have highlighted, using the associated graphic which areas are at greatest risk of seeing some wintry showers through late Monday and Tuesday with a risk of accumulations on higher ground. Further south and east conditions are forecast to be mainly dry into Tuesday once overnight frontal rain has cleared the south-east. Some bright or sunny spells are to be expected but clearly it will feel markedly colder than of late.

As we move into the middle of the week the weather will become increasingly unsettled. This is due to the development of an area of low pressure approaching from the north-west of the UK and is forecast to track down the eastern side of the UK through Wednesday. This low pressure and its associated weather fronts will bring a risk of rain, sleet and perhaps some hill snow, but given the more easterly track of this low (to the east of the UK) then the risk of any significant or disruptive snow is low or perhaps very low.

weather map

One primary cause for concern is the potential development of some very strong north or north-westerly winds across northern and western areas of the UK. I have highlighted, using the associated graphic, which areas are at risk of experiencing wind speeds up to 40mph to 50mph, but perhaps with gusts up to 60mph in yellow. There remains some uncertainties over these wind speeds as this low pressure will be in a stage of development as it approaches the UK, but confidence is increasing for some very strong winds on Wednesday.

The combination of wet and potentially very windy conditions with depressed temperatures will lead to a particularly cold and raw feeling day on Wednesday for many areas of the UK. At the moment the progress through to the end of the week is for the low pressure to clear away, slowly, to the south and south-east of the UK as high pressure becomes more influential across northern and western areas of the UK. As a result some rain or showers remain a risk across parts of the south and east of the UK, perhaps wintry on high ground, whilst northern and western areas of the UK become predominantly fine and settled.

Temperatures:

Temperatures through this week are forecast to be slightly below or below average with maximum temperatures generally ranging between 3C and 6C across more northern areas of the UK and between 4C and 8C further south. There will be a persistent risk of overnight temperatures falling to or below freezing with lows generally ranging between 0C and -3C, but rurally across northern areas of the UK then temperatures may fall as low as -5C or below. Given these predicted temperatures there is a persistent risk of frost and icy patches at times throughout the week and of which could well be the primary hazard from a travel point of view.

As usual further updates through the week, but be prepared for a distinctly cold and wintry week with some wintry showers early in the week giving way to a cold, wet and windy day on Wednesday but somewhat of an improvement later in the week, but still remaining cold and watch out for icy conditions both early and late each day.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 15 November, 11am

A Mixed Weekend

  • Some rain and showers in the north where it will be rather windy, especially on Saturday
  • Mainly dry across central and southern areas, but despite some bright spells, generally becoming cloudy.
  • Temperatures near to average, low risk of overnight frosts due to quite extensive cloud over the weekend.

A rather mixed weekend is expected; primarily due to the fact that both low and high pressure will be ‘battling it out’ to influence the weather over the weekend. Through the rest of Friday many areas of England and Wales are set fair with some bright spells, but with cloud generally increasing and becoming more extensive. This trend is set to continue into Saturday as high pressure (1024mb to 1032mb) influences the weather across England and Wales. As a result it is set to be a dry day with some bright spells, but again cloud is likely to be quite extensive across most areas. In contrast a weather front moving into Scotland and Ireland through the day, in association with low pressure to the north, will bring an increasingly wet and windy day here.

As we move into Sunday many areas are forecast to be mostly cloudy, but the cloud will have prevented a frost across many areas. The weather front that is expected across Scotland and Ireland on Saturday is expected to have moved down into Northern England and perhaps Wales and Central areas of England as well. It is likely to bring some damp weather though with some patchy rain or drizzle at times. Later on Sunday a more organised area of rain is expected to develop across Ireland and then progress eastwards into Northern England and Scotland later in the day and overnight.

Temperatures over the weekend will generally be near to average and with the extensive cloud this should generally prohibit frost from developing, but some localised patches are possible across parts of the south and south-east of England overnight into Saturday morning.

Cold Weather – Next Week:

There continues to be good agreement between the weather models regarding the progression towards a much colder spell of weather. This will move in from the north and north-west during Monday and then continue in to the middle of next week. Details do remain uncertain though, particularly surrounding the middle of the week, but these will be ‘ironed out’ over the weekend.

Overall though central and southern areas of England and Wales are forecast to start wet with rain or showers on Monday clearing away to the south and south-east. It is behind these weather fronts that the colder air will filter in and bring an increasing risk of wintry showers to northern and western areas of the UK later on Monday and into Tuesday. A general mixture of rain, sleet, hail and snow showers are then expected during Tuesday at the moment with again northern and western areas of the UK at primary risk for now. Some snowfall accumulations are possible away from coasts and low lying areas .Clearly there will be a widespread risk of frost from Monday night onwards and ice is also likely to become an increasingly significant hazard early and late each day.

Full details on Monday, covering next week, but be prepared for a distinctly wintry week next week with some potentially hazardous driving and travelling conditions in places.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

 

Note from the Editor;

In light of the forecast from Matt we urge motorists to make time this weekend to ensure that both they and their vehicles are winter ready.

Thursday 14 November, 9am

Early Taste of Winter

  • Increasingly cold from the north and north-west as Monday (18th) progresses.
  • Sleet and snow possible across northern and western areas, especially on higher ground.
  • Increased risk of frosts and some icy patches throughout next week.

If you’ve got an interest in the weather then no doubt you’ll have picked up on the talk of colder weather next week? Next week will turn colder with an early taste of winter, but it won’t be anything too exceptional for mid to late November.

At the moment, a developing area of low pressure to the north of the UK early on Monday will gradually move to the north-east of the UK. This will combine with higher pressure to the west to introduce a much colder north or north-westerly wind later on Monday and through into the middle part of next week.

Details remain uncertain still at this stage, but confidence is high for the colder theme to develop. At the present time it would seem that it is likely to be more northern and western areas of the UK (Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and Wales) that are at greatest risk of seeing some wintry precipitation. Sleet and snow are possible, especially on higher ground but not exclusively so. Again details remain uncertain, but these will be discussed nearer to the time.

One thing that is certain is that temperatures will become below average, overnight frosts will be far more frequent than they have been of late so far this autumn. The frosts could be locally quite moderate, especially across northern areas of the UK. Some icy patches are possible as well, these potentially quite widespread given that, at least for a time, the weather will be unsettled with precipitation combining with sub-zero temperatures by night.

At the moment the generally cold theme is set to continue towards and beyond the end of next week with possible north or north-easterly winds, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment. One thing is for sure though; the emphasis will be on generally colder than average conditions.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 14 November, 8am

This Week at AA SORT

North Wales Police & Met Office logos

  • Today Darron and John are attending a Met Office awareness session ahead of the winter season
  • They will also be attending a session with North Wales Police. this will be an introduction to the police Incident Command Structure, specifically Bronze command
  • It might be November but we are already planning for the AA's attendance at shows next summer. Lots of bookings made this week; we'll confirm dates and shows soon
  • It is IMPORTANT to note that every day this week we have assisted motorists stuck in water. The majority have been at areas where the road crosses a ford. Please be aware of the dangers and Think, Don't Sink!
  • The first of the joint training sessions is in the diary. We'll be training with Bay Search and Rescue on the 13th April. We're looking forward to training with them again. We hope to add many more dates next year too.

That's your lot for now folks, update on the weather to come from Matt shortly. Have a great Thursday.

Ian, The Twitter Man at @AASORT

Wednesday 13 November, 9am

Wet and Windy Then Dry & Settled

  • Increasingly wet and windy across northern and western areas through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday.
  • High pressure building during the latter half of Thursday and Friday bringing more settled conditions away from the north.
  • Temperatures generally near to average through the rest of the week so feeling rather chilly, with further slight frosts at times.

The weather so far this week has certainly been varied with a particularly mild, but damp and grey Monday for most giving way to cooler and fresher conditions during Tuesday with showery conditions, but also with some prolonged spells of sunshine. The remainder of the week will maintain that changeable theme.

weather map

A developing area of low pressure which is forecast to pass to the north-west of Scotland later today and into Thursday will bring a particularly wet and windy spell of weather for Scotland, Ireland and Northern England later today and overnight into Thursday. Initially a strong south-westerly wind will develop, but later today and overnight into Thursday the wind is forecast to become north-westerly and increase further with gales or locally severe gales possible. Areas highlighted in yellow are at risk of gusts in excess of 50mph to 60mph overnight into Thursday which may lead to some poor travelling conditions and a broader area of Scotland, Ireland and Northern England will see gusts up to 40mph to 50mph for a time.

As Thursday progresses low pressure is forecast to move away to the east of the UK and high pressure once again attempts to move into the UK from the west and south-west. This produces a chilly and showery north-westerly wind over many areas through Thursday, but with many of the showers dying away later in the day. A chilly night is then expected, especially for England and Wales overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning with another slight frost possible and perhaps some localised mist and fog patches.

We end the week with a large portion of the UK influenced by high pressure, with atmospheric pressure ranging between 1020mb and 1032mb across the country, pressure highest further south. As a result Friday is set fair across many areas with some bright or sunny spells once any mist and fog clears. Scotland, however, is likely to be cloudier given a strong west or south-westerly wind which will bring some possible patchy rain and drizzle here at times.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 11 November, 9am

A Changeable Week Ahead

  • Rain and showers at times, especially in the north, driest in the south especially after Monday
  • Spells of wet and windy weather for northern areas around the middle of the week.
  • High pressure bringing the risk of some overnight frosts and fog at times, especially central and southern areas.
  • Temperatures generally near average overall.

The coming week is expected to provide quite a variety of conditions as the weather is unable to ‘decide’ on a particular weather type, so a rather changeable week ahead. The week starts on a wet theme as frontal systems move south and eastwards across many areas during today (Monday). Some heavy outbreaks of rain are possible at times across central and southern areas, especially later today and into the overnight period with further rainfall totals potentially leading to some localised flooding. However by Tuesday morning the rain will be clearing to the south-east and a much improved day is expected

A cool and blustery north-westerly wind is expected for many areas on Tuesday and this will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers to most parts, but with the showers most frequent across northern areas, whilst parts of the south and south-west generally have a predominantly dry and bright day. A ridge of high pressure building into central and southern areas of the UK overnight on Tuesday may well lead to the development of some mist and fog patches and also perhaps some rural frost as well.

Mid-week is expected to produce a general north and south divide in conditions. High pressure, with pressure above 1028mb, is expected to dominate across central and southern areas, so after a possible chilly and foggy start on Wednesday the day is set fair. This is in contrast with Scotland, Ireland and Northern England of which will be dominated by low pressure and an increasingly wet and windy spell of weather. Showers and longer spells of rain, initially across Scotland and Ireland, will move down into Northern England as well. A strong or gale force west or south-westerly wind will be replaced by a north-westerly wind later in the day. Some severe gale force gusts (>60mph) may be possible across exposed coasts and hills of Scotland and Ireland in particular during the latter half of Wednesday, so this is something to be aware of.

Into Thursday and low pressure is expected to clear away to the east of the UK as another area of high pressure attempts to build into the UK from the south-west. As a result Thursday will provide another showery and rather cold day in association with a north-westerly wind. Some of the showers may be heavy and perhaps wintry on highest ground across Scotland. At the moment the week is set to end with further rain and showers affecting Scotland in particular, but with high pressure building into most of England and Wales. As a result Friday is likely to be mainly dry but perhaps with a renewed risk of some overnight mist and fog patches developing.

So, in summary a changeable week with the following possible hazards this week;

  • Heavy rain for central and southern areas of England through the latter half of Monday and overnight into Tuesday.
  • Mist and fog patches possibly developing on Tuesday night into Wednesday for central and southern England and then also again late in the week.
  • A spell of wet and very windy weather, with gales, especially for northern areas around the middle of the week and into Thursday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 8 November, 9am

Cold and Showery

  • Showers for many this weekend, more organised rain affecting parts of England and Wales today (Friday) and Saturday.
  • Showers wintry across high ground of the north, especially above 400m. Widespread frost expected on Saturday night.
  • Mainly dry after a cold start on Sunday, but turning milder, wet and windy from the west through the day

The cold and showery conditions of late are set to continue through today (Friday) and into the coming weekend. A more organised region of showers and longer spells of rain is expected to move eastwards across central and southern areas of England and Wales through today. This is set to bring some poor driving conditions at times and at the moment this is likely to affect the London area towards rush hour this evening. Another zone of heavy showers and more prolonged rain is expected to track eastwards on Saturday and whilst progressing quite quickly, it will provide further rainfall totals.

weather map

As a result, the areas highlighted yellow on the associated graphic are likely to see a general 10mm to 20mm of rainfall over the next 36hrs, but with local accumulations up to 30mm. Given saturated surfaces then some localised flooding may occur, particularly seeing a large amount of the predicted rainfall totals may fall in a relatively short space of time.

Further north and west across Scotland, Ireland and Northern England a general mixture of sunshine and showers are expected on Saturday. Some of the showers may be heavy with a rumble of thunder and given quite a cold air mass over the UK then the showers will be wintry above around 400m, especially across Scotland with snowfall accumulations on the highest hills and mountains. As the rain across the south clears later on Saturday and the showers die away further north, clear skies and increasingly light winds will lead to a cold night on Saturday night with a widespread frost for many areas. Temperatures sub zero are expected across inland areas from Northern England northwards by Sunday morning, so icy patches may be a possible hazard early on Sunday where surfaces have been left damp from showers.

Sunday is expected to start cold and crisp with plenty of sunshine and these conditions generally persisting across central and eastern areas of the country in particular. However, a big change in conditions is expected from the west through the day as weather fronts and an increasingly mild south-westerly air mass develops. This is expected to spread across many areas by the end of Sunday bringing overcast conditions, outbreaks of rain and drizzle and some extensive mist and hill fog for northern and western areas.

So, a few potential driving hazards to be aware of this weekend

  • Heavy rain and showers for central and southern England today and also through Saturday bringing surface water, spray and possible localised flooding.
  • Showers wintry (hail, sleet and snow) across higher ground of Scotland and perhaps Northern England late Friday and Saturday
  • Widespread frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning with localised icy patches possible where any surfaces have been left damp from recent precipitation.
  • Extensive hill fog bringing very poor visibility later in the day, from the west, on Sunday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 06 November, 10.30am

Rather Cold and Showery Outlook

  • Outbreaks of rain moving across most of England and Wales through today (Wednesday).
  • Showery conditions through the rest of the week, especially in the north and west, some wintry on high ground.
  • Temperatures generally near to average, if not slightly below across northern areas and feeling quite cold.

There have been no significant changes to the forecast issued on Monday and that is for a rather cold and unsettled weather pattern to continue. A weather front is forecast to move across England and Wales through today (Wednesday) bringing a spell of more persistent rain and a general 10mm-20mm of rainfall is expected from this, but with locally higher totals. As a result as Wednesday progresses for central and southern areas of England, be aware of standing water and spray if traveling. Also of some interest is the development of quite a sharp contrast in temperatures through the day with southern counties of England seeing temperatures rise to 13C to 15C, yet from the Midlands northwards temperatures will struggle to reach double-figures.

The more persistent rain is expected to quickly clear away to the east this evening and overnight and then leave the UK in a rather cold west or south-westerly air mass through Thursday and Friday. This is expected to bring a mixture of sunshine and showers across many areas, but with the showers most frequent across northern and western areas of the UK. Here some of the showers may be heavy and perhaps with a rumble of thunder as well. Temperatures, at altitude, will be low enough for a wintry mix of hail, sleet and snow, but snow being reserved for areas above 500m or so, especially across Scotland. However, this does place some emphasis on the rest of the week being rather cold. Overnight temperatures will also be rather low as well and some frost or perhaps localised icy patches are possible, these most likely across parts of Scotland.

 

Weekend Outlook

At the moment the weekend is expected a story of two halves, especially regarding temperatures. A rather cold and showery theme is set to persist on Saturday with again showers wintry across northern hills and temperatures, overall, average at best. However, quite a marked change in the weather is expected during Sunday as low pressure develops to the north-west of the UK and introduces a much milder south-westerly air mass. This is likely to bring extensive low cloud and hill fog to many northern and western areas of the UK in particular along with some outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 04 November, 10.30am

Remaining Unsettled- Quite Cold

  • Showers or longer spells of rain at times through the week, but with some drier and brighter intervals at times
  • Temperatures near to average, but feeling quite cold especially in any wet weather.
  • Risk of some wintry precipitation across highest ground in the north at times.

The coming week is expected to be a more ‘typical’ week in terms of weather across the UK and generally what should be expected at the time of year. Low pressure will maintain predominantly unsettled conditions and whilst some further heavy rain is possible at times, there will also be some drier and brighter intervals as well.

Many areas have started the week with a frost and the remainder of Monday will be dry with sunny spells, these often prolonged at times as well, but this will then be followed by a rather chilly evening with an early frost developing. However, weather fronts approaching from the west will bring thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain, initially across Ireland, but then spreading eastwards across many areas into Tuesday morning, so a far cloudier and damp scenario is expected by Tuesday morning compared with the cold and crisp start today.

Once the rain has cleared away to the east on Tuesday many areas will then see a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers on a fresh or strong north-westerly wind so feeling quite cold in the wind in particular. Towards the latter half of Tuesday attention is drawn towards the south-west of the UK as a developing weather front moves up towards the UK. This is expected to bring outbreaks of rain, initially to south-western areas of the UK, but moving across a large portion of England and Wales during Wednesday. There are some uncertainties over how far north the rain will get, but overall it is expected to move through quite quickly

The week is expected to end with low pressure dominant to the north and north-west of the UK and this maintaining a rather cold and unsettled air mass across many areas. As a result showers and longer spells of rain are expected to end the week, particularly across northern and western areas of the UK, whilst some drier and brighter conditions develop further south.

With further rainfall expected this week then the risk of some localised flooding will continue, especially across more western areas of the UK in particular across Wales, South-west England, Ireland and parts of western Scotland are areas of some concern. However, any persistent rain through the week is forecast to move across the UK quite quickly, which lowers the risk of more widespread flooding. The risk of some wintry precipitation is possible across high ground of Scotland at times, but this risk will generally be reserved for regions above 400m to 500m, but it places some emphasis on the week being quite cold.

As usual, updates to follow through the week…

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 1 November, 15:00

An autumnal weekend ahead

  • Rain across more southern areas through the rest of today (Friday) will clear away leaving drier conditions for many
  • Wet and windy conditions spreading eastwards through Saturday after a chilly start
  • Persistent rain clearing east early Sunday, blustery showers then following for a time

The weather over the coming weekend will be quite typical for early November and will provide a colder feel, compared with the very mild autumn so far, with the risk of some overnight frosts at times.

Rain across central and southern areas of England and Wales will clear away this evening leaving behind a general 20mm to 30mm of rainfall in places, which, combined with recent rainfall may lead to some localized flooding and poor driving conditions for the Friday evening rush hour.

A chilly night is expected to follow across more northern areas of UK with temperatures low enough rurally to bring the risk of frost for parts of Scotland and Northern England in particular.  Minimum temperatures by Saturday morning will drop down to near 0C to 3C quite widely across Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland. This is in contrast with more central and southern areas where temperatures will remain considerably above freezing.  So if you’re venturing out early on Saturday across the northern half of the UK be prepared for a potentially cold and frosty start with some localized mist and fog patches as well. 

Saturday 

Moving into Saturday yet another area of low pressure moves into the UK from the west. This is set to bring a zone of showers or longer spells of rain eastwards across many areas through the course of Saturday along with a strengthening west or south-westerly wind. Gales are possible across southern and south-western areas of England and across Wales during Saturday, before winds veer more north-westerly later in the day bringing a risk of gales to parts of Northern England.

Sunday

During Sunday the area of low pressure is expected to pull away to the east through the day leaving in its wake a rather cold north-westerly wind across all areas bringing a mixture of sunshine and showers - the showers and the wind will gradually ease as the day progresses.  Another cold night is expected to follow on Sunday night and into Monday with potentially quite a widespread frost first thing next week.

So a lot of rather autumnal weather to contend with within the coming few days:

  • Heavy rain across central and southern areas today (Friday) eventually clears but with poor driving conditions this evening.
  • A cold night for northern areas of the UK tonight and with a frost expected by Saturday morning along with some localized mist and fog patches.
  • Outbreaks of rain or showers along with strengthening winds spreading eastwards across many areas through Saturday and into Sunday bringing a spell of wet and potentially very windy weather for many.
  • Showers dying away later on Sunday with a cold night on Sunday night into Monday of next week with a possible widespread frost to great those heading out early on Monday (4th) morning.

 

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

October 2013 posts >
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About the Special Operations Response Team (SORT)

Each vehicle is double-crewed and trained in flood response and search and rescue (certified to DEFRA Level 3) trained by the same people who train the RNLI and many fire service teams. Crews also undergo 4x4 driver training RoSPA certified, and regularly undertake joint multi-agency training exercises.

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