Emergency breakdown

October 2013

View our older posts from The AA Special Operations Response Team (AASORT) and expert meteorologist Matthew Hugo.

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October blog posts

Wednesday 30 October, 9.30am

Remaining Unsettled

  • Rain spreading east through today (Wednesday), some heavy and also becoming windy.
  • Sunshine and showers for most areas through Thursday, whilst rain clears away from the south-east.
  • More persistent rain spreading back into southern areas on Friday, showery elsewhere.

Conditions through the middle and latter half of the week will be more ‘typical’ for the time of year with the unsettled regime continuing bringing some wet and windy weather, but without any extreme conditions as seen earlier in the week.

Within the short term a band of rain is expected to move eastwards across many areas of the UK, but particularly northern and western areas through today (Wednesday). Some heavy rain is possible at times across Scotland, Ireland and later Northern England and Wales with perhaps a general 15mm to 25mm of rainfall possible in places. This may lead to some localised flooding in places, but without bringing a widespread or more significant risk. Winds will increase; clearly nothing to the extremes of Monday, but gale force gusts may be possible at times across parts of Scotland, Ireland and Northern England as the day progresses, especially across coasts and hills.

As we move into Thursday the frontal system bringing rain through the day today will linger across parts of the south-east bringing some rain here before eventually clearing. Behind this many areas of the UK will experience a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest and most frequent across parts of Scotland, Ireland and Northern England.

 

Friday and Saturday

As mentioned within the blog from Monday there are and continue to be signs of more significantly unsettled conditions returning to end the week and move into the weekend. At the moment more persistent rain is expected to move into southern areas of England and perhaps Wales during Friday bringing some possible large rainfall totals here in excess of 20mm to 30mm, but there is some uncertainties over just how persistent the rain will be. Further north and more showery conditions will persist.

Later Friday and into Saturday attention then turns towards a low pressure approaching from the west. Latest model data is suggesting that this feature will bring some further heavy rain to a large portion of the UK over the UK with perhaps a renewed risk of flooding in places. Winds may also become gale force and perhaps locally severe gale force across western and south-western areas of the UK at the moment.

So, in essence, the unsettled theme will continue and with the renewed risk of further heavy rain and strong winds towards the weekend, then be prepared for possible further inclement and possible severe weather across some parts of the UK. More details on this specific spell of weather will be issued later in the week.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 29 October, 11:30am

St Jude's Storm Debrief

Team at work in Lincolnshire

Workload for the SORT crews was widespread and as far afield as Bideford, Portsmouth, Lincolnshire and the Forest of Dean. Contrary to our expectations based on the Met Office forecasts, there was almost no flood related work in North Wales and Northern England as the path of the storm crossed further south than originally forecast. The areas of greatest workload for SORT were the Forest of Dean and Leicestershire/Rutland, both of which would have been on the northern edge of the path of the storm

The team uses specially equipped and adapted Land Rovers - all named after fish - crewed by a professionally trained team to undertake vehicle rescue and recovery in floods and other severe weather

Each vehicle is double-crewed by certified swiftwater rescue technicians, trained by the same people who train the RNLI and many fire service teams (R3SAR a Rescue 3 Europe training provider). Crews also undergo 4x4 driver training with RoSPA including off-road operations.

Our teams crossed paths with many other agencies, from emergency responders to council teams, utilities providers and the Environment Agency. The Environment Agency were present at one of the locations we attended on the Leicestershire/Lincolnshire border, and shortly afterwards they were tweeting photos of us in action. Our thanks to Natalie and the team @LincsOpsEA for sending us the picture above.

75% of the SORT crews returned home last night as flood specific workload fell. The AA SORT team - over 90 in number - is made up almost exclusively of AA people with a normal ‘day’ job as well. Some are patrols and others work in office-based roles including breakdown call handling. All are volunteers, willing to leave their van or desk – and often home and family too – at short notice when ever required. We thank them all for their dedication.

Flood related workload came in from as early as 00:40 and our last job yesterday received just after 18:00. Total flood related workload hit 86 cases, with other weather related faults like 'Stuck in Mud' also seeing an increase. However whilst breakdown workload overall was higher than the previous Monday it did not hit the levels that we may have expected. Lower traffic volumes and drivers heeding warnings certainly helped.

86 flood related tasks

The eyes of the team now turn to the next band of bad weather, we will, as always, be ready.

Ian, your man on Twitter @AASORT

Monday 28 October, 1pm

Remaining Unsettled - Further Rain or Showers

  • Sunshine and showers into Tuesday, cooler than of late
  • A rather cold start to Wednesday, wet and windy weather spreading east through the day.
  • Generally unsettled to end the week, perhaps another spell of wet and windy weather late in the week and into next weekend

The deepening area of low pressure that has brought a mixture of very strong winds and heavy rain is now clearing away to the east of the UK and overall the remainder of the coming week will provide further unsettled conditions, but without any severe or high impacting weather at the moment, despite a likely continued risk of some localised flooding in places.

Tuesday, across many areas, will be dominated by a rather cold north-westerly wind. This will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers to most areas of the UK, but these most frequent and heaviest across northern and eastern areas. Through the day a minor ridge of high pressure is expected to approach from the south-west so this will signal a general reduction in the frequency of the showers by the end of the day and also allow for a rather cold night for many areas on Tuesday night. A touch of frost is possible across rural areas by Wednesday morning.

Mid-week will see a return to more unsettled conditions nationwide as an active weather front move’s across many areas. Whilst the day may well start dry and rather cold for many areas the weather front moving into the UK from the west will increase cloud amounts and bring a band of moderate or heavy rain eastwards across many areas, though not reaching and east and south-east England until well into the afternoon.

The wet weather may well linger across parts of the south-east of the UK into Thursday but many other areas will see a return to a mixture of sunshine and showers and at the moment that theme will continue into Friday. There is some cause for concern however over the potential development of another noteworthy area of low pressure approaching by next weekend. Clearly, in meteorological terms, this is a long way off and the details remain elusive at this stage, but there is the possibility of further wet and windy conditions.

Clearly further rainfall this week, even modest totals, may well lead to a risk of localised flooding due to just how much rainfall there has been within the last week to two weeks. Overall it will continue to be more northern and western areas of the UK that are at greatest risk of flooding given that the heaviest precipitation is likely to fall across those regions of the UK.

Whilst the severe gales and widespread rain continue to clear away to the east through Monday the outlook for the last few days of October and into early November continue to be orientated around unsettled weather. So, and unfortunately, expect further spells of rain or showers at times and with the risk of flooding most likely being a persistent cause for concern.

As ever further updates through the week

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 25 October, 5:30pm

Stay safe and stay tuned

With Matt and the Met Office warning of the most powerful storm in years, there's likely to be tree and other debris on the roads as well potential flooding. So keep your speed down and drive with great care, particularly on country roads early on Monday morning when it's still dark.

Don't gamble on driving down flooded roads and think twice before crossing a ford. If you're using a sat-nav, be sensible and try to stick to the main routes where possible.

Keep tuned to the weather and traffic reports – in case of road or bridge closures – and heed any local police advice about whether it's safe to travel.

At a minimum, take a fully-charged mobile phone and warm, weatherproof clothing.

Find out more, or see our advice on how to cope in extreme wind.

Darron Burness, Head of the Special Operations Response Team

Friday 25 October, 11:30am

Wet and windy – stormy later on Sunday

  • A band of rain moving eastwards across many areas on Saturday after a dry start. Blustery showers later.
  • Blustery showers on Sunday for many areas, some heavy, giving way to a potentially stormy spell of weather from the south-west.
  • Temperatures generally near to average, but feeling cooler given the generally unsettled conditions.

The coming weekend will maintain the unsettled conditions as low pressure continues to dominate the weather ahead of a potentially noteworthy and severe spell of weather later in the day on Sunday and through into Monday.

At the moment, Saturday will see a predominantly dry start to the day, giving way to increasingly cloudy conditions from the west as yet another weather front moves across many areas.

Some persistent and often heavy rain is possible for a time, but this will eventually clear. Blustery showers are expected from the west later on Saturday and overnight into Sunday. Some of these may be heavy at times and winds will become strong or near gale force, especially during any showers.

Clearly further rainfall on Saturday will continue to increase the risk of flooding across more western areas of the UK in particular, so this is something to be aware of, especially across areas, which have already experienced a large amount of rainfall so far this week.

Into Sunday and for most of the day, the weather will be dominated by a strong or near gale-force west or south-westerly wind, which will produce a mixture of sunshine and showers.

Some of the showers may well be heavy and thundery and with some locally squally winds evident in association with any of the heavier showers. Equally, in between, it will be somewhat drier and brighter.

Attention then turns towards the south-west of the UK for the end of the day as a developing area of low pressure develops…

Stormy weather
The weather patterns at the moment are conducive for some particularly unsettled conditions in the form of deepening areas of low pressure. One such feature is expected to approach the UK from the south-west through Sunday.

At the moment, gales and severe gale-force winds are forecast to move into south-western areas of England and also Wales later in the day on Sunday as the low pressure approaches with wind speeds in excess of 50mph to 60mph, especially around coasts and hills.

Latest model data is signaling this area of low pressure to move north-eastwards, rapidly, across England and Wales overnight on Sunday and through into Monday before quickly clearing away into the North Sea.

The primary cause for concern is the development of some potentially very strong, if not exceptionally strong winds for southern areas of the UK. Using the associated image, the areas highlighted yellow are at risk of experiencing wind speeds up to 40mph to 50mph for a time.

However, wind speeds overnight on Sunday and through into Monday morning may well exceed 60mph to 70mph across the areas highlighted red. There's a significant risk of some structural damage, felled trees and possible travel disruption.

weather map Many areas of South Wales, south-west England, central-southern England, south-east England and also up into some eastern areas of England are at primary risk of some exceptionally strong winds overnight on Monday and into the start of Monday morning. This may well lead to some significant and extensive travel disruption first thing on Monday morning.

This area of low pressure will also bring a spell of very wet weather across many areas well, which will continue to bring a risk of flooding also.

Again this will particularly be so across more western areas of the UK, which have already been affected by some large rainfall totals this week. So there is likely to be a combined risk of gales/severe gales and also further localised flooding to start next week, but emphasis has to be placed on the wind speeds being particularly strong for those regions highlighted red. It's best to stay tuned to local and regional weather forecasts over the weekend.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 24 October, 5.30pm

Management of Water and Flood Incidents

MWFI

  • Two of the team are in North Wales this week for an Management of Water and Flood Incidents (MWFI) course.
  • The MWFI course forms Module 5 of the Defra Flood Rescue Concept of Operations. A document that sets out the framework for enhancing the capability and national co-ordination of flood rescue in England
  • The excellent R3SAR are delivering the course in conjunction with the equally excellent folk from Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue's training academy
  • There are a number of attendees from a number of different agencies including; Durham and Darlington Fire and Rescue Service, Northumberland fire and rescue, Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue, The New South Wales State Emergency Service AND last but not least The AA.
  • The course is designed to meet the need for incident commanders at water and flood incidents to have the underpinning knowledge and skills to successfully manage such operations.
  • We conclude tomorrow with a table top exercise managing a simulated flooding incident impacting Tavistock in Devon.

Ian, your man on Twitter over @AASORT

Wednesday 23 October, 10:00am

Drier briefly, but more rain to come

  • Drier and brighter for a time through the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday.
  • Renewed risk of heavy rain and showers moving across many areas to end the week and into the weekend.
  • Temperatures generally remaining slightly above average, though briefly cooler today (Wednesday).

The unsettled conditions are set to continue through the coming week, but the remainder of Wednesday will provide a brief respite from the more persistent rain.

Showers and longer spells of rain are still evident across Scotland and Northern England but these will clear away to the east and allow a cooler north-westerly wind to develop. This will bring a scattering of showers across northern and western areas but generally the afternoon will  be dry with some bright or sunny spells at times across most areas of the UK. A rather chilly night follows as winds become light - Wednesday night will be one of the coolest nights in some time with lows ranging between 5C and 10C generally, and a rather chilly start to Thursday.

Thursday

Thursday is forecast to be a decent day across the northern half of the UK after the chilly start with some bright or sunny spells and just a few scattered showers.

Low pressure, to the south-west of the UK will develop during the day and bring thickening frontal cloud to some southern and south-western areas of the UK leading to outbreaks of moderate and heavy rain.

Into Friday

Outbreaks of moderate and heavy rain, with strong winds, will sweep northwards across many areas overnight on Thursday and into Friday. The rain will be persistent across northern areas in particular on Friday, whilst following on behind will be brighter conditions but also with some heavy and perhaps thundery showers.

weather map

Further rainfall through the rest of the week will continue to increase the risk of flooding across parts of the UK. A large area of the UK (yellow) is at risk of another 15mm to 25mm of rainfall through the rest of the week adding to previous totals.

In more western areas of the UK (red) the risk of flooding remains greatest with another 30mm to 40mm between now and the end of Friday. Coupled with the previous heavy rainfall, the risk of flooding across the areas highlighted in red is likely to increase.

Weekend

Unsettled conditions are forecast to continue into the coming weekend with further showers or longer spell’s of rain moving across the UK from the west.

There is cause for concern over the possible development of a noteworthy area of low pressure from the west late in the weekend and into Monday -  a spell of autumn gales or severe gales is possible along with further heavy rain.

The very ‘active’ period of weather is set to continue

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 21 October, 9.30am

Very unsettled – heavy rain and showers

  • Very unsettled with spells of rain or showers for many areas throughout the week.
  • Increasing risk of some localised flooding for parts of western areas of the UK through the week.
  • Temperatures generally above average and generally very mild, though cooler later in the week.

The coming week will be dominated by low pressure, remaining influential to the west and south-west of the UK and, at times, developing over the UK as well. The primary cause for concern through the week will be the cumulative rainfall across some parts of the UK with an increasing risk of localised flooding as surface conditions become increasingly wet and saturated.

The week starts off unsettled with a band of moderate and heavy rain currently moving northwards across Ireland, Wales and England, continuing to progress north-eastwards through the day. Further frontal systems into Tuesday will signal additional rainfall spreading northwards across many areas, but again with more western areas of the UK seeing the heaviest and most persistent rainfall. A general clearance to more showery conditions from the west is expected later in the day on Tuesday.

Mid-week will be dominated by low pressure just to the north or north-west of the UK introducing a somewhat cooler west or north-westerly wind and a day of sunshine and showers, bringing some respite from the persistent rain, though some of the showers may be heavy at times across northern and western areas.

Towards the end of the week there are uncertainties over the details, but at the moment after a rather chilly start with perhaps some mist and fog on Thursday morning across northern areas, cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain will return from the south-west. These unsettled conditions are then forecast to move northwards across many areas during the latter stages of Thursday and into Friday, with further showers or longer spells of rain developing across many areas on Friday.

Rainfall

weather map

The coming week will see a lot of rainfall with a large area of the UK (yellow on the map) at risk of experiencing a general 25mm to 35mm of rainfall.

The areas highlighted red - SW Scotland, eastern Ireland, Wales, SW England and perhaps across into some Central-southern areas of England - may see up to 60mm to 70mm of rainfall by Friday.  The risk of flooding is likely to increase through the week across these areas in particular as surface conditions become increasingly wet and Saturated.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 18 October, 9.30am

Think Don't Sink

  • In light of today's forecast and incidents we have responded to this week we are encouraging the public to "Think Don't Sink!"
  • Please do not drive into flood water and think twice before crossing fords that may be running deeper and faster than usual.
  • Re-programme sat nav or use local knowledge to find an alternative route.

Stay safe this weekend folks, I'm sure you are all lovely, every last one of you, but we really don't want to be seeing you this weekend.

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Friday 18 October, 9am

Remaining Unsettled – Risk Heavy Rain and Showers

  • Heavy rain moving north and east on Friday and into Saturday, risk of some localised flooding in places.
  • Heavy showers following for most this weekend, some of these perhaps thundery at times.
  • Temperatures generally slightly above average this weekend, especially in the south and south-east, so feeling very mild for the time of year.

weather map

Th unsettled conditions of the last few days are here to stay and yet further low pressure and active weather fronts are now moving up into parts of the UK from the south and west. They will bring a particularly wet day for more western areas of the UK. I have highlighted, on the associated graphic, which areas are at greatest risk of rainfall totals of 40mm to 50mm in red through the remainder of Friday and into Saturday. It is across these areas that some localised flooding may occur, especially in areas susceptible to flooding. The initial risk is for parts of eastern Ireland, Wales and South-west England through Friday. However, the risk then extends further north and east into southern and eastern areas of Scotland during Saturday as rainfall here becomes quite persistent. Those areas highlighted yellow are likely to see 20mm to 30mm of rainfall, but generally with little risk of flooding.

The overall progression through the coming weekend is for any persistent rain to eventually clear away to the north of the UK later in the day on Saturday. Following on behind to most areas through Saturday afternoon and then Sunday will be a mixture of sunshine and showers in association with an unsettled and quite blustery south or south-westerly wind. Some of the showers during Saturday and Sunday afternoon may well become quite heavy with a risk of local thunder as well, especially across some central and western areas of the UK. Some of the showers may well bring some localised torrential downpours at times, but they will quickly move through. A possible improvement in conditions may develop later in the day on Sunday as a weak ridge of high pressure approaches from the south-west.

For many areas the weekend will be mild, but this will be offset somewhat by the wet and windy conditions at times. That being said, temperatures will be slightly above average, so feeling mild and across parts of the south-east of England it may well feel quite warm in any sunny spells over the weekend. At the moment maximum temperatures are expected to range between 13C and 18C generally.

The unsettled conditions are set to stay and unfortunately further heavy and potentially disruptive amounts of rainfall are possible early next week. Full details on this during Monday…

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 17 October, 5pm

Update on the Week

Staffordshire Fire and Rescue

  • Visit last week and this to Staffordshire Fire & Rescue HQ to present to Station commanders on our vehicle capabilities, training and how we can work interoperable with other emergency responders.
  • We title it ‘Finding our place in the jigsaw’
  • Two of the team are prearing to attend a Management of Water and Flood Incidents (MWFI) course in Wales next week run by R3SAR in conjunction with Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue
  • We have received a number of stuck in water jobs this week and the people are still risking driving through Fords... If its flowing, don’t go, re programme sat-nav and find an alternative route.

Darron, AA SORT Operations Mngr

Wednesday 16 October, 10am

Further Showers and Spells of Rain

  • Remaining unsettled across many areas with showers or longer spells of rain, especially across the west of the UK.
  • Risk of further heavy rain at times, again particularly so across western areas with perhaps a risk of some localised flooding by Friday.
  • Temperatures generally near average across the far north of the UK, otherwise the week is set to end with relatively mild conditions with temperatures slightly above or above average in the south-east.

The predicted spell of wet weather for the middle of the week has arrived as expected and some particularly heavy rain for more western areas of the UK will continue today whilst gradually moving north-eastwards. This will leave behind generally drier and brighter conditions from the south-west, but also with a scattering of showers possible. The rain is expected to become rather slow moving across Northern Ireland, the far North of England and Southern Scotland later today and overnight.

Thursday does provide a temporary improvement as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into England and Wales in particular. As a result, for England and Wales, apart from a few showers the day is expected to be predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells possible. Showers or spells of rain across Scotland early in the day will gradually ease, but overall quite a cloudy and damp day is expected across Scotland, whilst further rain or showers develop across Ireland later in the day.

weather map

The week is still expected to end on another particularly wet note, as slow moving low pressure to the south-west of the UK continues to dominate. Another set of active weather fronts are forecast to move up into the UK from the south-west during the day and move generally northwards across most areas, but particularly across more western regions of the UK. The weather fronts are forecast to combine with a particularly mild and moist air mass across the UK to bring the risk of some heavy rain at times through Friday and overnight into Saturday. As mentioned earlier in the week the cumulative effect may well lead to the risk of some localised flooding. At the moment in time a large area of the UK (highlighted yellow) is at risk of experiencing up to 20mm to 30mm quite widely between today (Wednesday) and the end of Friday. However, it is across the areas highlighted red, which is also quite extensive, that precipitation totals may well reach up to 50mm or more with a subsequent risk of flooding, particularly as Friday progresses. It is of worth to highlight that a broad area is at risk of heavy rain later in the week, so it is difficult to pin point which areas specifically are at risk of flooding.

So, be prepared for further wet and unsettled conditions at times. Thursday will provide a brief respite, but further heavy and potentially disruptive amounts of rainfall are then expected through Friday in particular. The latest medium and longer term thoughts is that these unsettled conditions will continue with a further threat of unsettled conditions and spells of possibly heavy rain at times. Autumn has most certainly now arrived…

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 14 October, 9am

Generally Unsettled, Wettest In The West

  • Monday, Wednesday and Friday expected to be the most unsettled and wettest days of the week, drier Tuesday and Thursday.
  • Risk of some heavy rain at times with some regionally large accumulations by the end of the week
  • Temperatures generally near, and later in the week, slightly above average, though colder across the far north.

The coming week is expected to be generally unsettled as low pressure to the west and south-west of the UK influences the weather. After a wet weekend in places, especially across some southern and eastern areas of England, it is most likely that western areas of the UK will be wettest through this coming week. So, let’s take a look in more detail...

The low pressure that brought the wet weather over the weekend remains situated across England and Wales in particular through today (Monday) and this is set to bring a mixture of sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain at times. Some further heavy precipitation is possible, especially more locally and regionally, but there will be some drier and brighter intervals developing at times. As we move into Tuesday the low pressure is set to clear away to the east of the UK and this will introduce a window of better weather, for most, during the course of the day. Some showers or rain are possible still across some eastern areas of the UK for a time, but generally through the day most areas should become predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells. A weather front close to south-west England may bring some thicker cloud and rain here though at times.

During the middle of the week a more active set of weather fronts are expected to move up into the UK from the south-west bringing a spell of wet and potentially quite windy conditions north and eastwards. Some heavy rain is expected for a time in association with these weather fronts, but generally they should move north and eastwards quite quickly through the day and with brighter conditions following from the south-west but with scattered showers.

Thursday will, of sorts, be a repeat of Tuesday in that it will provide a ‘window’ of better weather across the UK as a minor ridge of high pressure builds in. Some showers or spells of rain remain possible across some northern and eastern areas in particular, but generally the day should produce some drier and brighter conditions and a respite from the wet and windy conditions that will be in evidence during Wednesday. However, as we progress through towards Friday further active weather fronts are expected to develop from the south-west once again and spread north and eastwards. This is set to bring a wet end to the week with showers, longer spells of rain and windy conditions as well.

The risk of heavy rainfall this week is most significant on Wednesday and Friday. At the moment rainfall totals are likely to become quite large by the end of the week across more western areas as a cumulative affect develops. The areas highlighted yellow, of which is quite extensive, is at risk of experiencing a general 25mm to 35mm of rainfall over the course of the week, but those areas highlighted red may well see up to 40mm to 50mm with perhaps a risk of some localised flooding at times

weather map

So, overall quite an unsettled week is to be expected. Temperatures for England and Wales will be near average up to Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 12C to 15C generally, though a few degrees cooler across the north. Later in the week, despite the unsettled conditions, it will become very mild across England and Wales with highs currently expected to range between 14C and 18C, though somewhat cooler/colder conditions are likely to persist across the far north of the country. More details will, as ever, be issued through the course of the week.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 11 October, 9am

Wet in the south, dry in the north

  • Showers or spells of rain expected for England and Wales, some heavy, especially in the SE 
  • A dry weekend for Scotland and Ireland in particular with bright or sunny spells  
  • Remaining rather cold with temperatures at or slightly below average and feeling particularly cold in the rain and further strong winds in the S and SE

The coming weekend is set to provide quite a variation in conditions across the UK with many areas of England and Wales generally becoming increasingly unsettled with rain or showers at times while remaining quite windy.

In contrast high pressure is expected to maintain fine and settled conditions across Scotland and Ireland with bright or sunny spells by day, but rather chilly by night under clear skies with some frost, especially in rural areas.

The primary focus of interest and some concern is across southern and south-eastern areas of England. Between Friday and the end of the weekend showers or longer spells of rain are expected to produce some significant rainfall totals in places.

Low pressure just to the south-east of England, will dominate bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times.

weather map

Yellow areas are at risk of experiencing a general 20mm to 30mm of rainfall by the end of the weekend, while areas highlighted red may well reach 40mm to 50mm, especially locally which may bring some localised flooding and difficult travelling conditions at times. The combination of the wet weather, along with a strong north-easterly wind will make for a particularly cold feeling weekend across this region of the UK.

So, with the exception of Scotland and Ireland which will experience a particularly quiet and benign period of weather, for most the weekend is set to be particularly autumnal. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected at times, particularly across SE England and the wind will remain strong, at least through until the end of Saturday before easing somewhat during Sunday. Temperatures are set to be near or slightly below the seasonal average overall with highs between 10C and 14C generally and it will feel particularly cold in any wet weather.

Overnight temperatures beneath clear skies across Scotland and Ireland may well fall to just 2C or 3C rurally, so some frost remains possible here.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 9 October, 9am

Turning colder for all areas

If you’ve got used to the very mild conditions that have dominated overall so far this autumn, then today and the rest of the week will come as quite a shock!

A change to colder conditions is expected to take place today as high pressure to the west and north-west of the UK combine with lower pressure to the east to produce a much colder north or north-easterly air mass across all areas through the remainder of Wednesday and to the end of the week.

The colder air will gradually filter southwards through Wednesday behind a relatively weak and disorganized cold front that will mark the boundary between colder air filtering down from the north.  Temperatures through the course of Wednesday afternoon and evening will actually become lower than they have been during the morning.

The development of a strong or gale force northerly wind will accentuate the cold front and for a time the winds are forecast to be particularly strong across some northern and eastern areas of Scotland in particular later today. The highlighted areas of Scotland may well see wind gusts up to 50mph to 60mph later today which may bring some localised travel disruption.

weather map

Through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday strong winds are also expected down many North Sea coastal areas with gusts here ranging between 40mph and 50mph.

Temperatures are expected to fall away quite significantly tonight, but the strength of the wind will generally prohibit frost from developing. However, with winds generally lightest across western Scotland and Ireland overnight then it is across these areas that frost is most likely into Thursday morning.

The week is set to end with a general north and west/south and east split in conditions.

Some particularly unpleasant weather is expected for parts of the south and south-east of England as a fresh or strong north-easterly wind combines with lower pressure and weather fronts to bring showers, longer spells of a rain and a particularly cold end to the week.

In contrast, whilst it will remain quite cold, Northern England, Scotland and Ireland are likely to be dominated by high pressure. As a result it is across these areas that frost is likely by night, but by day some bright or sunny spells are expected and winds will also be lighter so not feeling too bad during daylight hours.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 7 October, 9am

Mild At First, Colder Later

The coming week is expected to provide quite a varied and significant change in the weather across the UK. As I’m sure many are aware it has and continues to be particularly warm for the time of year with temperatures of late ranging between 15C and 20C as maximums across the UK and this has felt particularly warm. However, it is the time of year now when colder conditions can develop and the coming week will provide an example of that.

Both Monday and Tuesday however will generally maintain mild conditions across the UK with the change coming mid-week. Monday is expected to be particularly wet across northern and western areas of the UK but especially across west and north-west Scotland where up to 40mm of rainfall is possible as weather fronts associated with an area of low pressure affect the region. In contrast many central and southern areas of the UK are likely to experience another dry day with bright or sunny spells and feeling warm once again with maximum temperatures nearing 20C.

Into Tuesday and weak weather fronts are expected to move north-west to south-east across the UK bringing a generally cloudier day across parts of the south than of late, as a result Tuesday will begin to feel cooler, but temperatures are still expected to be near or slightly above average. Showers and longer spells of rain remain a more significant risk across Scotland through the day and the wind is expected to become more north-westerly here as the day progresses.

Wednesday is the day of change and what a change it will be. At the moment low pressure is expected to develop over Scandinavia as high pressure builds to the west and north-west of the UK. This weather pattern is expected to bring about a north or north-westerly air mass over many areas of the UK and signal a large drop in temperatures. A weather front is expected to move from north to south through the day with some rain or showers associated with this. It is behind this weather front that the colder air mass will be introduced and by the end of Wednesday all areas will feel a real change in the weather, especially seeing a fresh or strong north or north-westerly wind is expected. Showers across Scotland later in the day on Wednesday are likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially above 500m or 600m.

The week is expected to end with a general east and west split on conditions. High pressure is expected to influence many western areas of the UK on Thursday bringing a fine and settled day with some bright or sunny spells but it will remain cold in a northerly wind. Overnight frost is possible as well, especially in rural areas. A cold northerly wind will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers to eastern areas of the UK and these may continue to be wintry on highest ground in Scotland. At the moment showers or longer spells of rain are then expected to become a risk for south-east England on Friday and of which when coupled with a strong north-easterly wind may well make for a particularly cold and wet day here. Further north and west further drier and brighter conditions are expected but with some overnight frosts.

So the coming week will provide quite an extreme change in conditions across the UK and this is something to be aware of. The very mild, if not warm conditions of late are set to be replaced by below average temperatures and a markedly colder ‘feel’ to the weather with possible overnight frosts and some wintry precipitation on highest ground in the north.

As usual more details on the middle and latter half of the week will be issued as the week progresses…

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 4 October, 1pm

Unsettled in the North, Dry in the South

After some particularly wet weather over the last few days conditions are set to improve into the coming weekend, but primarily for England and Wales as high pressure builds up into the UK from the south-west. Low pressure is still producing some showers and spells of rain across more central and northern areas of the UK through the rest of today (Friday), before clearing away to the east overnight. A cooler but rather cloudy overnight period is then set to follow with some further showery conditions across the north and west.

As we move into Saturday an area of high pressure to the south-west of the UK will extend a ridge north-eastwards up into the UK bringing a predominantly fine and settled day with some bright or sunny spells, particularly so for England and Wales. Low pressure to the west and north-west of the UK will approach however and its associated weather fronts will bring thicker cloud and some rain or showers to parts of western Scotland and Ireland later in the day along with a freshening south-westerly wind.

Some overnight mist and fog may well be present early on Sunday morning across central and southern areas of England in particular, so this is one potential hazard to be aware of. Otherwise, a general north and west, south and east split in the weather is expected on Sunday. Low pressure passing to the north-west of the UK will maintain a more unsettled south-westerly air mass across Scotland, Ireland and eventually Northern England. As a result a rather cloudy and breezy day is expected across these areas of the UK with some rain or showers at times. In contrast many central and southern areas of England and Wales will maintain the fine and settled conditions with some bright or sunny spells at times.

Temperatures over the weekend will remain quite mild and generally around or slightly above average with highs ranging between 15C and 19C generally, though perhaps locally up to 20C or 21C in the south in any sunshine.

The good news is that indications for next week is for high pressure to become increasingly influential across a large portion of the UK bringing a mainly fine and settled week at the moment. Overnight mist and fog may well become more of a widespread hazard however, but there is little or no evidence to suggest a return to any wet and windy conditions within the immediate future.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 2 October, 9am

Heavy Rain, Risk of Flooding

The up-coming 36 hours or so will be particularly unsettled across a large portion of the UK as low pressure to the west and south-west of the UK dominates the weather with a series of active weather fronts moving into the UK from the west and south-west. These will maintain a risk of showers and longer spells of rain of which will be heavy or, at times, very heavy leading to some locally very large rainfall totals.

The remainder of Wednesday sees a zone of heavy rain moving northwards across northern and eastern areas of England, but this generally weakening as it does so, but is still likely to lead to some large rainfall totals at times and also some poor driving conditions. Following on behind will be a continued mixture of sunshine and showers and longer spells of rain at times for southern and western areas of the UK. Once again, as with the last few days, locally some large rainfall totals are possible due to localised downpours and some thunder is possible as well.

Overnight on Wednesday and through into Thursday attention is then drawn to developments to the south-west of the UK. A developing area of low pressure, with its associated weather fronts, is forecast to move up into the UK through the course of the day bringing a zone of very heavy rain northwards across many areas.

weather map

This region of heavy rain is expected to amalgamate with showers and longer spells of rain already still evident across many western areas of the UK to produce a particularly wet day for western areas of the UK. I have highlighted on the associated image which areas are at risk of experiencing rainfall totals up to 40mm to 50mm in red and perhaps with locally higher totals. It is across these areas that there is a risk of localised flooding during the course of Thursday and Thursday night, especially across more prone areas. Within the highlighted yellow area, of which you will note is quite extensive, rainfall totals up to 25mm to 35mm are possible quite widely as well. Some localised flooding may occur here as well, but the more significant risk will be restricted to areas highlighted red.

It is only the far south-east of England and also the far west of Ireland that is expected to experience relatively small rainfall totals within the coming 36 to 48hrs. The good news is that by Friday and into the weekend a rapid change to far more settled conditions is expected now, but until then some potentially severe weather is on the way with some particularly hazardous driving and travelling conditions expected at times.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

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