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July 2013

View our older posts from The AA Special Operations Response Team (AASORT) and expert meteorologist Matthew Hugo.

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July blog posts

Monday 29 July, 11am

Changeable Week Ahead – Heavy Rain Possible

The final few days of July and the opening few days of August will provide quite a changeable spell of weather across the UK as low pressure brings a predominantly unsettled week, despite some sunshine at times as well. Temperatures across the UK are also set to vary quite significantly through this coming week as well with a significant increase in temperatures, albeit temporary, by the end of the week.

So starting with Monday and Tuesday and from a meteorological point of view the word ‘convection’ comes to mind. This word is directly associated with large towering clouds that often leads to heavy downpours and thunderstorms and that mixture of sunshine and heavy, potentially thundery downpours is what sums up the beginning of the week. Some heavy and thundery showers are possible almost anywhere on Monday and locally these could bring a lot of rainfall in a short space of time, some hail and also lightning as well, so these are something to watch out for as a hazard. Into Tuesday and a weather front is set to move across southern areas of England and bring a risk of more persistent rain to parts of the south for a time, whilst further north and west that mixture of sunshine and heavy and perhaps thundery showers continues.

By Wednesday a developing area of low pressure is forecast to become dominant just to the west and south-west of the UK as a weather front, associated with the low, moves northwards across many areas bringing a further spell of rain and drizzle. Noticeably this weather front is a warm front and behind it, it will introduce a much warmer and more humid southerly air mass across many areas of the UK. Between Monday and the end of Wednesday some locally large rainfall totals are possible almost anywhere due to the heavy and thundery downpours but it is across the areas highlighted in red that up to and over 20mm to 30mm is possible, with perhaps some localised flooding;

weather map

Towards the end of the week and the weather is set to get particularly interesting. The area of low pressure that develops to the west of the UK mid-week persists and becomes located across Ireland with weather fronts bringing further rain, showers and possible thunderstorms across Scotland and Ireland in particular. Further south and east Thursday is forecast to be very warm if not hot with temperatures up to 28C to 30C across urban areas of the south. The heat and humidity is only temporary mind and a breakdown to somewhat cooler conditions from the west is expected as showers, longer spells of rain and possible thunderstorms move across many areas to end the week./p>

So after what no doubt has been one of the best July months in years in terms of temperatures and sunshine amounts, the final few days of the month and the start to August will produce some particularly varied conditions.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 26 July, 9am

Unsettled Weekend – Risk of Heavy Rain

The coming weekend is providing some interesting forecasting challenges, primarily due to the expected development of an area of low pressure across northern areas of France that is forecast to move up into parts of the UK and bring some particularly wet weather indeed as Saturday progresses. So the emphasis on this weekend’s weather is definitely an unsettled one with some heavy rain or showers affecting a large portion of the UK at times.

weather map

So start with Saturday and the developing area of low pressure is forecast to bring increasingly thick cloud northwards across many central and southern areas of England through the morning and this will then herald the arrival of some heavy rain, showers and possible thunderstorms. As Saturday progresses an area of heavy or perhaps very heavy rain is forecast to affect southern and south-eastern areas of England, I have highlighted this area in pink on the associated image. Across this area up to 40mm to 50mm of rainfall seems possible by the end of Saturday and into Sunday, with perhaps locally higher totals. Some localised flooding is possible, especially across prone areas.

weather map

At the same time, further north and west, Saturday is forecast to produce a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest across Scotland and Ireland where there will be a risk of thunder. However, during the latter stages of Saturday a region of heavy showers or more prolonged spells of rain are forecast to move northwards across the Midlands and up into Northern England and eventually Southern Scotland. I have highlighted this area of interest in red on the associated image and with a lower risk of heavy rain spreading across the areas in yellow. Across the areas highlighted red some heavy or very heavy rain is also possible later in the day on Saturday and overnight into Sunday when a general 20mm to 30mm of rainfall is possible quite widely with again perhaps higher totals which may bring a risk of some localised flooding.

So, for Saturday, in summary, a gradual progression towards particularly wet conditions is forecast across a large portion of England in particular and eventually up into Southern Scotland later in the day and also perhaps across parts of Wales as well. Even at this stage it is of worth to highlight there is some uncertainties as to which areas will experience the largest rainfall totals given a particularly complex synoptic weather pattern, but some areas are set to experience some particularly wet weather over the weekend with a subsequent risk of some localised flooding.

Sunday sees any persistent rain clear away into the North Sea as low pressure to the west of the UK becomes dominant. This is set to bring about a mixture of sunshine and showers too many areas of the UK through the course of Sunday but with the heaviest and most frequent showers expected across southern and western areas of the UK given closer proximity to the low pressure. Some localised heavy and thundery downpours are also possible on Sunday afternoon, particularly across Ireland, Wales, Southern England, Midlands and Northern England at the present time.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 24 July, 9am

Rather Warm, But Generally Unsettled

The breakdown to more unsettled conditions most certainly went with a ‘bang’ over the last day or so with many areas of the UK experiencing some heavy and torrential, thundery downpours. Through the rest of the week and into the weekend low pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature of the weather and become slow moving to the west and south-west of the UK. This is forecast to maintain quite a warm south or south-westerly air mass across most areas with some sunny spells at times, but equally the risk of further heavy and thundery showers remains.

The low pressure will have a more active set of frontal systems with it initially which is forecast to bring a zone of heavy and more persistent rain across Ireland and into other western and south-western areas of England and Wales later today (Wednesday) and overnight whilst it moves north-eastwards into central and northern areas of England. Some localised thunderstorms may also be in evidence as well. As we progress into Thursday and Friday many areas of the UK are likely to experience a mixture of sunshine and showers, these most frequent across western areas of the UK where they may well once again be heavy and thundery at times but as with the last few days they will be hit and miss and not everywhere will see one.

An early outlook into the weekend heralds more of the same for many areas really with low pressure persisting just to the west and south-west a mixture of sunshine and locally heavy and thundery showers is set to continue. One interesting development that may bring a risk of more organised heavy and thundery rain to the south-east is the development of an area of low pressure over the far north of France on Saturday. There is some uncertainty over this, but depending on subsequent developments parts of the south-east may experience more persistent thundery rain for a time on Saturday.

Full details on the weekend, as usual, later in the week, but watch out for further heavy and thundery showers in the days ahead.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 23 July, 3pm

Rain brings heatwave to stormy end – floods update

AA Special Operations, has rescued 40 cars driven through or stuck in flood water so far today (as at 15:00), including several vehicles stuck in open manholes after covers were dislodged by flooding.

Darron Burness, head of the AA’s flood rescue team, says: “With the ground baked dry, any rain just runs off, so roads can quickly flood. Not only do you risk writing off your car but flood water can mask serious hazards like open manholes and drains.

“Also watch your speed as any rainfall can leave roads like an ice rink in places. Over a prolonged hot spell, a slick rubber and oil sheen can build up on the road surface, particularly at junctions and roundabouts.”

Monday 22 July, 10am

Increasingly Unsettled – Thunderstorms Expected

The prolonged spell of fine, settled and very warm conditions will slowly come to an end this week as high pressure is replaced by lower pressure to bring about a more changeable and unsettled period of weather. The change to more unsettled conditions will begin over the next few days and these unsettled conditions will combine with some remaining very warm and humid temperatures to bring a risk of thunderstorms.

The primary importance this week is the risk of thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the week. All the ‘ingredients’ are present for some potentially severe weather on a local scale from thunderstorms. Whilst a large portion of the UK is at risk, it is across England and Wales the risk is most significant, but it is very difficult to be site specific as to which areas and regions will experience the most severe weather.

Monday starts with high pressure declining away to the north-east of the UK as low pressure develops to the west and south-west. This weather pattern is going to be responsible for maintaining a very warm and humid south or south-easterly air mass over the UK, so a cooling trend within the short term is not expected. The combination of the heat and humidity will trigger some thunderstorms later today (Monday) across parts of England and Wales and of which some of these may continue into Monday night across parts of Wales, the Midlands and up into Northern England. A very similar day is then expected on Tuesday but with the probability of more widespread downpours and thunderstorms expected, particularly across Northern England, Midlands and Eastern areas of England. Again whilst a large portion of the UK is at risk, not everywhere will see a thunderstorm, but where these do develop then it should be noted that some torrential rainfall leading to a risk of localised flooding is possible, along with lightning and hailstones.

By the time we get to mid-week low pressure will be dominating the weather and it will have turned somewhat cooler and fresher as the plume of high temperatures and humidity clears away to the east. Wednesday, as a result, is forecast to be unsettled with further rain or showers at times, again some of which could still be thundery, but with generally a lower risk compared with earlier in the week. Low pressure is then set to remain dominant across the UK to end the week and bring a continued mixture of sunshine and showers, some of which could be heavy and still be thundery as well. Some areas may see more prolonged periods of rain develop at times as well and generally, compared with of late it will feel noticeably cooler and fresher.

Once these unsettled conditions become established they are set to continue for some time. At the moment low pressure and increasingly cooler conditions will dominate the weather across the UK to end July and also well into the opening week of August. Whether summer will return at some point in August is too early to say, but with quite high confidence I can say that the recent prolonged spell of summer weather is about to come to an end and in quite an active way!

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 19 July, 11am

There’ll be fun, fun, fun! In the Sun, Sun, Sun!

With the summer in full swing and the start of the school summer holidays upon us we’ll take a look at what we are up to this weekend.

Latitude Music Festival – Suffolk – 18th – 22nd July

  • As always we will have a presence at Latitude, patrols and SORT crew will be on hand. The mud of previous years should be less of an issue after the summer heat-wave though.
  • As with other events, if you need us please call our dedicated Festival Assist Number 0800 072 3642


CLA Game Fair (Alcester) – 19th – 21st July

Taking place at Ragley Hall, Alcester, Warwickshire

  • The CLA Game Fair is the largest countryside event in the World, attracting over 1000 exhibitors and roughly 150,000 visitors over the 3 days of the show
  • The AA will be running our dedicated event breakdown line. Any problems just call 0800 072 3642


Royal International Air Tattoo, RAF Fairford 20th – 21st July

  • Held annually each July at RAF Fairford, Gloucestershire, the Royal International Air Tattoo, the world's largest military airshow, has gained the well-earned reputation as one of the UK's top outdoor family events
  • The AA will be running our dedicated event breakdown line. Any problems just call 0800 072 3642


Matt's look at the Weather

Latitude, CLA Game Fair and RAF Fairford: High pressure will maintain the fine and settled conditions at all events with dry conditions and further sunny spells. A little cooler than of late given more of a east or south-easterly breeze over the weekend, but still warm or very warm at all events.

From everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend, enjoy the sunshine!

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Thursday 18 July, 2pm

Another Sunny and Warm Weekend

Yet another week is progressing by with further very warm, if not hot and sunny conditions across many areas of the UK as high pressure remains influential. It was approximately July the 6th when the high pressure initially developed across the UK, so we are now approaching 2 weeks of fine, settled and clearly very warm conditions without any interruptions. The very warm and sunny conditions are set to continue into this weekend and also into next week, but next week does herald some changes, of which I will summarise later.

So the weekend as a whole, once again, is dominated by high pressure. Friday sees high pressure (1028mb) situated across Scotland and this area of high pressure encompasses the whole of the UK. So another dry day is expected nationwide with some prolonged spells of sunshine once some early mist and fog patches clear. Temperatures will once again reach 24C to 28C quite widely across inland areas of England and Wales but up to 30C or above is possible still.

As we move into the weekend the high pressure is forecast to decline somewhat to the north and north-east of the UK. Whilst this doesn’t really affect the weather too much and as a result it will maintain a fine and settled weekend for many areas with some further prolonged bright or sunny spells, it will introduce more of an east or south-easterly breeze, particularly across England and Wales. As a result whilst it will still remain warm with temperatures ranging between 23C and 26C, though locally up to 27C or 28C at times, the breeze will make it feel a little cooler and fresher than of late, particularly so for urban areas of southern England. Some eastern coastal areas of England may unfortunately see some low cloud and fog move in off the North Sea as well at times over the weekend and this may difficult to clear, again along immediate coastal areas.

So, bar a somewhat cooler breeze developing and perhaps more cloud at times across eastern areas of the UK, yet another weekend is set fair with warm or very warm temperatures and further sunny spells.

So what about next week? – Well at the moment there are some uncertainties due to some divergence within the weather models. However, what does seem possible and the most likely scenario at the moment is that the very warm and humid conditions will continue and potentially build once again as next week progresses with temperatures potentially above 30C once more. However, there is also the sign that as the week progresses pressure will finally begin to fall as high pressure moves away and the combination of lower pressure and the heat and humidity could bring about a significant risk of some heavy and thundery downpours. More on this early next week, but a potential change is on the horizon now as next week progresses.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 15 July, 10am

More Summer Sun and Heat

In what is turning into one of the best July months, weather wise, for many years due to persistent high pressure across the UK, the coming week will provide more of the same excellent conditions. High pressure is set to be the dominant feature of the weather across many areas of the UK once again through the coming week and this will bring further sunny and very warm conditions to many areas.

The first half of the week sees a main area of high pressure situated just to the south-west of the UK and this is extending a ridge north-east across many areas. As a result for most of the UK Monday and Tuesday will be dry with further prolonged spells of very warm sunshine by day. Some overnight mist and fog patches may develop and cloud may also develop around some coastal areas, but this should all clear by late morning. The position of the high pressure is likely to mean that more unsettled conditions do develop at times across northern and western areas of Scotland and these areas will see far more cloud than elsewhere and some rain or showers are expected along with a moderate or fresh south-westerly wind.

As we progress into the middle of the week and the high pressure (1022mb to 1026mb) is forecast to build up into the UK to maintain the very warm, settled and sunny theme for most. Once again some early mist, fog and low cloud around some coastal areas is possible, but this will clear to leave further prolonged spells of sunshine. Once again however, northern and western Scotland will be susceptible to more cloud and some patchy rain or showers as weak weather fronts move across these areas of the UK.

As we progress towards the end of the week the high pressure is forecast to have built across all areas of the UK with pressure ranging between 1024mb and 1028mb at the present time. The weak frontal systems affecting northern and western Scotland will also have been replaced by higher pressure here as well. So many areas of the UK are forecast to end the week sunny, dry and very warm if not hot.

Temperatures through this week are forecast to be very warm if not hot once again, especially across England and Wales. Generally though across England and Wales, this week, maximum temperatures are forecast to range between 24C and 28C though temperatures up to 30C or just above are distinctly possible at times across urban areas of the south. As would be expected cooling sea breezes will signal temperatures to be somewhat cooler around the coasts. Temperatures across Scotland and Ireland are forecast to range between 20C and 24C, though perhaps rising a few degrees higher than this later in the week. Equally at the start of the week northern and western Scotland are likely to experience temperatures of just between 15C and 20C

So the question everyone wants to know is how long with this spell of summer weather now last? - At the moment the very warm and settled conditions will continue into next weekend (20th and 21st) and also in to the following week as well. However, there are distinct signs and signals now that point towards cooler and more unsettled conditions developing across the UK by the end of the month, but that shouldn’t stop this July turning into one of the best summer months in many years.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 12 July, 12pm

Festival Assist at T in the Park

We are operating Festival Assist at T in the Park, the SORT team will be in operational alongside our regular Patrols and available on 0800 0723642. Should you experience any car troubles our onsite team will be on hand to assist.

AA Key Assist will also form part of the team, ready to cut replacement keys that may have been lost or stolen.

The weather for this T in the Park weekend will be very warm and sunny through today, but generally becoming cloudier and cooler but still with some sunshine at times. Temperatures 22C to 24C today, but falling to between 18C and 20C generally into Saturday and Sunday.

Friday 12 July, 12pm

AA SORT will be attending Rescue Day 2013

On Saturday 13th July AA SORT will be attending Rescue Day 2013 at 7 Lakes Country Park in Crowle, North Lincolnshire (9am to 5pm). The day involves all the emergency services and many from the voluntary and professional sectors. Now in its 6th year, Rescue Day has grown to become the largest event of its kind in the world. The event aims to drive home the importance of water, road and fire safety by allowing the public unprecedented access to teams from across the country along with many practical rescue displays. Gates open at 9am and displays start at 11am.

AA Special Operations will be attending for the 2nd time and are once again set for a display working alongside the impressive Newfoundland water rescue dogs. We will have a full team in attendance (stand 92) and look forward to meeting the public, taking part in the displays and running a rescue skills competition to get you all involved. AA Members will receive 10% discount on entrance to the event when they show their members card. Please visit www.rescueday.com for further details about the event.

AA SORT Team

In addition to the events In Lincolnshire we will also be at RNAS Yeovilton Air Day 2013. We will be running our Festival Assist scheme at the event. If you have any car problems you can call our dedicated line for assistance 0800 072 3642. we will also be offering special rates for those needing to join for immediate service.

Friday 12 July, 9am

Fine, settled and very warm

After a high pressure dominated week with some very warm and humid conditions at times, the weather is set to continue in a similar way through the coming weekend. As usual there are few exceptions, but generally many areas of the UK will maintain the fine, settled and very warm theme.

Saturday

High pressure (1024mb to 1028mb) is forecast to dominate across many areas during Saturday and maintain the settled conditions.

weather map, Scorchio

However, a weak weather front moving south out of Scotland and into Northern England may signal an increase in cloud compared with previous days. This may also be the focus for some isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms across parts of Northern England on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Central and Southern areas of England and Wales will be particularly hot with maximum temperatures forecast to range between 26C and 30C within the highlighted area.  In one or two places temperatures may just rise above 30C as well.

The high temperatures and humidity on Saturday may also produce a few isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms across central and Southern areas of England. As with Northern England these will be isolated and ‘hit and miss’, but if any do develop then some locally torrential downpours are possible.

Sunday

Into Sunday and generally there is little change, high pressure (1022mb to 1026mb) remains influential across the UK maintaining further fine, settled and warm or very warm conditions.

Maximum temperatures on Sunday are forecast to range between 18C and 23C across Scotland and Ireland and between 22C and 26C across England and Wales, but perhaps with temperatures locally a few degrees higher in urban areas of the South and South-east. Further prolonged sunny spells are forecast across many areas of the UK and with just some variable amounts of cloud at times.

Next week

The good news is high pressure is forecast to remain influential through next week and become dominant once again from the middle of next week onwards. As a result, fine, settled, sunny and very warm conditions are forecast to be the dominant weather type up to and including the weekend of the 20th and 21st of July at least. More details on next week, as usual, on Monday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 10 July, 10am

Summer set to stay

After some very warm, if not hot and humid conditions during the first half of the week, today (Wednesday) does see a brief respite particularly so across northern and eastern areas of the UK. A particularly weak weather front is bringing some thicker cloud down into northern and eastern areas of the UK through the day and this is expected to lead to a somewhat cooler and fresher day than of late. However, further south and west across southern England, Wales, South-west England and most of Ireland the sunshine remains in places along with some very warm temperatures this afternoon and a lot of the cloud across northern and eastern areas of the UK should fragment through the afternoon and evening.

As I highlighted at the beginning of the week the week as a whole was set to be dominated by sunny and very warm conditions and that trend hasn’t changed. Thursday and Friday will see the sunshine return to many areas of the UK with almost unbroken sunshine at times in places and temperatures will, as a result, respond and it will become very warm and hot again by Friday. Maximum temperatures across England and Wales are set to range between 23C and 27C generally through Thursday and Friday but some urban areas are likely to see maximum temperatures up to 28C to 30C on Friday and into Saturday.

There is a risk, albeit minimal, that the heat and humidity may trigger one or two localised heavy showers or thunderstorms on Friday, at the moment across parts of Northern England and perhaps down the Pennines. These will be hit and miss, but if these do develop then some localised downpours and thunder is possible.

At the moment into the weekend and for many the fine, settled and very warm conditions will continue, particularly so across England and Wales but with perhaps the risk of a few isolated heavy afternoon showers continuing.

Full details on the weekend’s weather and an outlook on next week coming up later in the week as usual.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 8 July, 9am

Remaining fine, settled and very warm

The very warm and sunny conditions that have dominated a large part of the UK over the weekend are set to continue through the coming week, though subtle differences at times will signal slight changes to cloud amounts and temperatures, particularly around the middle of the week.

This week carries on from where the weekend finished, with many areas seeing a day of sunshine and very warm temperatures. Some low cloud and misty conditions are expected for a time across eastern coastal areas of England and Scotland, but this should gradually burn off. Otherwise temperatures across a large portion of the UK will generally range between 24C and 28C, with 29C or 30C possible across western areas of England and perhaps East Wales.

Tuesday

With high pressure (1028mb to 1032mb) dominating the weather into Tuesday, another very warm, if not hot day is expected, with similar maximum temperatures and further prolonged spells of sunshine. It may well be cloudier across the far north of Scotland, perhaps with some showers or patchy rain.

Wednesday

Around Wednesday a subtle change takes place as a weak weather front becomes located across the country - Wednesday is likely to be a cooler and cloudier day.  Temperatures will still be warm or very warm (20C and 24C), but not reaching the high 20’s of previous days.

End of the week

This cooler and cloudier theme isn’t expected to last. By Thursday and Friday high pressure is forecast to remain dominant and any weak frontal systems will have cleared. Sunshine amounts will increase again and temperatures will rise, ranging between 24C and 28C again, with perhaps 29C or 30C possible somewhere.

All in all summer is set to stay throughout the week with high U.V levels and some particularly uncomfortable nights given high minimum temperatures, especially in more urban areas.

Next weekend

The high pressure looks set to last into next weekend (13th and 14th) at the moment, though with the high pressure expected to shift more to the west of the UK by that time, a cooler north or north-westerly air mass may well develop into next weekend signaling a cooling trend though remaining predominantly fine and settled.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 4 July, 12pm

Tennis, RAF Waddington, Danson Festival, Mini Show and Bath Motor Pageant

This weekend is a busy one for the AA; we'll have a presence at a number of large events, including being responsible for car parking at the Wimbledon Tennis Championships. We are proud to have been providing this service since 1928 and this year we will have around 80 staff at the championships to help motorists.

The weather this weekend is forecast to be dominated by high pressure and increasingly warm conditions. As a result all the above festivals are forecast to take place in excellent conditions with some prolonged spells of increasingly warm sunshine, particularly so by Sunday. No precipitation is expected at any of the events and temperatures by Sunday in particular may well reach highs of between 23C and 27C and feeling increasingly humid.

For a more detailed forecast please read the post below.

Thursday 4 July, 12pm

It's time for some summer sun!

The unsettled conditions of the last few days are now almost out of the way and as I have been discussing for some time now the progression towards higher pressure bringing what is likely to be one of the best spells of summer weather in years, given how poor the last number of summers have been, is imminent.

High pressure is forecast to build up into the UK from the south-west overnight tonight and through into Friday bringing the first of many warm, sunny and settled days for England and Wales in particular to end the week. Scotland and parts of Ireland, particularly Northern Ireland will join the ‘party’ later in the weekend because here further, relatively weak frontal systems are forecast to bring thicker cloud and some patchy rain, drizzle or showers at times both on Friday and Saturday, but improving by Sunday.

The main emphasis this weekend though is most certainly the build pressure across the UK to bring increasingly settled conditions nationwide, as mentioned, by Sunday in particular. Pressure is currently forecast to rise to between 1032mb and 1034mb across many areas by the end of the weekend and this will signal the onset of a persistent spell of dry, settled, increasingly very warm and humid weather. Temperatures through the weekend are forecast to gradually rise, but it is across inland areas of England and Wales in particular that temperatures will become very warm by Sunday in particular. The below is a guide as to which areas are forecast to see maximum temperatures ranging between 24C and 28C this weekend and perhaps locally nearing 30C;

24c to 28c for most of England

So, the weather is set to fair to say the least and at the moment these very warm, if not hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue throughout next week and up to the weekend of the 13th and 14th at the moment. As a result I do expect that the period between the 6th and the 14th of July to be one of the best spells of summer weather the UK has seen in at least 3 or 4 years. It is of worth to highlight as well that some particularly high U.V. levels are expected this weekend, so sun cream will be a necessity and if you have any pets please remember it can and will get very hot inside closed vehicles as well. Full details on next week’s weather will be issued, as usual on Monday, but I have a feeling the words ‘hot’, ‘humid’ and ‘sunny’ will essentially sum up next weeks’ weather.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 1 July, 8.30am

Generally unsettled – drier/warmer later

The majority of the coming week will be dominated by low pressure set to bring a generally unsettled opening few days of July across most areas, but particularly so across northern and western areas. A marked change in weather is expected by the end of the week, but for the short term an unsettled outlook is expected.

weather map, rain

The week is forecast to start on a showery theme, particularly across northern areas of the UK with showers locally heavy across Scotland in particular. Very few showers are expected across central and southern England where it will be predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells, but feeling fresher than recent days.

Into Tuesday low pressure moves in off the Atlantic and will become influential. Many areas may well start dry but outbreaks of rain initially across Ireland will move eastwards across many areas during the day leading to a particularly wet and quite windy spell of weather. The heaviest rainfall is expected across northern and western areas, whilst southern and south-eastern areas generally experience the lightest precipitation.

Wednesday

A brief window of drier conditions is expected on Wednesday but with a mixture of sunshine and showers still likely, again particularly so across northern areas. As one area of low pressure clears to the east another approaches and this is set to bring further wet and windy conditions across northern and western areas of the UK late on Wednesday and through into Thursday.

The combination of showers and longer spells of rain for northern and western areas of the UK is likely to lead to between 10mm and 20mm of rainfall quite widely between Monday and Thursday, but within the areas highlighted yellow up to 30mm to 40mm of rainfall is possible, with perhaps a low risk of some localised flooding in prone areas.

Friday

The week is set to end on a completely different theme as high pressure builds in across the UK bringing a predominantly fine and settled day for many on Friday with some bright or sunny spells and feeling warmer. Some residual rain or showers may affect northern areas, but generally the week finishes on markedly improved conditions.

Next weekend

These more settled conditions are then forecast to continue into next weekend and beyond along with increasingly warm and humid conditions with high confidence now for a spell of particularly good summer weather expected from next weekend onwards. More details on this as the week progresses.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

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