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June 2013

View our older posts from The AA Special Operations Response Team (AASORT) and expert meteorologist Matthew Hugo.

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June blog posts

Friday 28 June, 8am

Dry and warm in the south – more unsettled further north

The coming weekend for more central and southern areas of the UK won’t be too bad at all as high pressure becomes increasingly dominant. However, frontal systems and an area of low pressure are forecast to move across the north of the UK and bring the risk of some rainfall and more unsettled conditions further north.

Saturday

So starting with Saturday and many areas will start dry with some bright or perhaps sunny spells, especially across southern and eastern areas of the UK. Moving into more western areas will be a weather front, as a result Ireland and Western Scotland are forecast to become increasingly cloudy through the morning with some generally light or moderate rain or drizzle developing. Those generally cloudy and damp conditions across northern areas are then forecast to persist through the remainder of Saturday, whilst more southern areas generally remain predominantly dry and where any bright or sunny spells do develop then it will feel quite warm and humid.

Sunday

Into Sunday and the general north and south split in conditions is forecast to continue with a ridge of high pressure bringing a particularly pleasant day for central and southern areas of the UK with bright or sunny spells and warm conditions and also feeling quite humid.

So for parts of central and southern areas of England in particular, Sunday could definitely be a BBQ day. However, and in contrast, more northern areas of the UK will become increasingly cloudy, windy and also wet as a weather front moves into Scotland and Ireland first and then into the afternoon and evening down across Northern England, bringing quite a wet end to the day here.

Further ahead 

Looking a little further ahead and there have been some distinct signs and signals that some proper summer weather may arrive as we move into early July and that does remain the case still. However, before that at the moment the majority of next week does look quite unsettled, especially across northern and western areas of the UK with some further rain and windy conditions.

By the time we get the latter half of next week and into the first weekend of July pressure may well begin to rise from the south-west leading to a marked improvement in conditions. This is something I will keep an eye on, but for the time being the end of June and the opening few days of July at least are likely to be more unsettled than settled, especially away from the south of the UK.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 25 June, 9am

Tennis, music and racing cars

This week is a busy one for the AA; we’ll have a presence at a number of large events.

  • We have over 50 staff working at Glastonbury music festival in Somerset. Providing a wide range of services to those festival goers who travel by car.
  • We will have Patrols and SORT Land Rovers at this weekend’s British Grand Prix at Silverstone, providing breakdown support
  • The AA is once again responsible for car parking at the Wimbledon Tennis Championships. We are proud to have been providing this service since 1928 and this year we will have around 80 staff at the championships to help motorists

We operate a special 'Festival Assist Service at big events;

festival assist

The big question for many people going to Glastonbury in particular is what will the weather be like? Well, our man Matt Hugo, a Meteorologist, has the answers;

"The various forecast models signal little in the way of any significant rainfall during the coming week and into the weekend. At the moment, rainfall totals in the region of 2mm to 4mm are possible in total within the next 5 to 7 days across Glastonbury and these totals are evident due to the possible risk of some light and patchy precipitation later in the week."

"A quick note on temperatures and generally through the week and into next weekend temperatures will slowly rise from being slightly below average to nearer average. A general maximum temperature range between 17C and 21C is expected, with the highest maximum temperatures likely this coming weekend in association with any prolonged bright or sunny spells."

"Confidence is now high to suggest that this year’s Glastonbury event will experience near-perfect conditions both leading up to the event and also through the main event itself as high pressure influences the weather. There is little or no risk of any significant or disruptive precipitation and with temperatures on the increase through the week and into next weekend it will be pleasantly warm, especially in any sunshine."

So, It is looking pretty good for all of the events this week, with little significant disruption, so if you are fortunate enough to be going to one of these prestigious events we hope you have a fantastic time and hope you don't need our services. If you do though, we'll be there to help.

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Monday 24 June, 1pm

Predominantly fine and settled

Coinciding with the first week of Wimbledon the weather has decided to play ball, no pun intended!

High pressure, building from the south-west of the UK, will become the dominant feature of the weather during the week and for a large portion of the UK produce a predominantly fine and settled week ahead with little risk of any severe or disruptive weather. As usual there are some exceptions to the rule and these will be discussed shortly. So the week starts with a large area of high pressure to the south-west of the UK and this area of high pressure then ridges north-eastwards into the UK bringing mainly fine conditions with some bright or sunny spells. A few showers are possible and a weak weather front across Ireland and parts of Western Scotland may produce thicker cloud with some patchy rain or drizzle at times into Tuesday. Despite the predominantly settled conditions it will be quite cool for the time of year given a north-westerly air mass over the UK.

Towards the middle of the week and there is little change. At the moment atmospheric pressure is set to rise to between 1028mb and 1034mb and as a result Wednesday, for many, will be dry with some bright or sunny spells and feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine, but with temperatures still only around or slightly below average for late June. A few showers may still develop across eastern areas of the UK but these will be light and well scattered.

The end of the week sees the high pressure decline somewhat to the south and south-west of the UK and this will give the opportunity for weather systems to move into some northern and western areas of the UK. As a result the week is set to end on a north and south split really with Scotland, Ireland and probably Northern England becoming cloudier with some patchy rain or showers at times, these perhaps locally heavy across Scotland but for most any precipitation will be light or moderate. Southern areas of the UK will likely see an increase in cloud with perhaps a few showers, but generally for central and southern England and parts of Wales further dry and settled conditions are expected to end the week.

So all in all, not a bad week ahead and in a word a ‘typical’ UK summer week, but prospects for both Wimbledon and Glastonbury look good thanks to the high pressure, so both events are likely to experience predominantly dry conditions with little risk of washout conditions at either venue.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 11 June, 2pm

Looking ahead at the world of AA SORT

BEN Motorcycle Rally 2013

Back by popular demand the BEN Motorcycle Rally is heading to 4 countries in 4 days and taking in the Stelvio Pass, one of the most dramatic passes in Switzerland!

  • BEN is the UK’s dedicated charity for those who work, or have worked, in the automotive and related industries, as well as their dependants.
  • The team behind the AA's Historic Fleet are patricipating in the event and providing breakdown support


Bristol and West Land Rover Show

Taking place at the Bath and West Showground on Saturday 22 and Sunday 23 June

  • The AA will be running our dedicated event breakdown line. Any problems just call 0800 072 3642
  • We will be sending an AA SORT Land Rover to the event along with the usual roadside patrols


SORT Team on Standby

With the latest forecast from Matt warning of strong winds and potentially heavy precipitation, we have placed the team on standby to respond to any incidents that may arise.


Glastonbury Festival Prep

Monday sees the first of more than 50 AA staff arriving in Somerset to prepare for the festival. In 2011, the AA attended around 450 breakdowns – mostly flat batteries, overheating, lost keys and cars stuck in mud. But what does this year have in store? Matt has the highlights:

  • Precipitation: The various forecast models signal little in the way of any significant rainfall during next week (after Monday) and during the actual weekend in question. At the moment, rainfall totals in the region of 4mm to 8mm are likely between Wednesday 26th and Sunday 30th. Note at this time frame this is an estimation but once again there is little evidence for any significant or heavy precipitation.
  • Confidence: At this stage confidence is quite high, given model consistency and agreement, for this year’s Glastonbury event to progress without any significant or disruptive rainfall totals. Confidence is quite high that the days leading up to the event will become increasingly fine and settled with sunny spells and little in the way of precipitation (after the period between the 22nd and 24th). Models diverge somewhat over precipitation totals by the weekend of the 29th and 30th, but even at this stage there is no signal for any significant or disruptive rainfall. As a result, I suggest given latest model guidance, that this year’s Glastonbury festival will progress without any significant disruption due to the weather. A further forecast and update will be issued early next week (24th or 25th).

From everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend, whatever the weather

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Thursday 20 June, 9am

A wet and windy weekend ahead

The forth coming weekend is, officially, the first weekend of summer seeing that the Summer Solstice takes place on Friday 21st of June. However and unfortunately the expected weekend’s weather will be far from summer like…

weather map, rain

The weekend’s weather will be dominated by low pressure and quite an unseasonal area of low pressure as well of which is currently developing within the Central North Atlantic. This area of low pressure, with its associated weather fronts, are forecast to move into the UK later in the day on Friday and then cross the UK throughout the weekend. As a result rain and showers will be widespread and often heavy and some of the showers may also turn thundery in places as well, with some locally torrential downpours possible. At the moment more northern and western areas of the UK are at greatest risk of experiencing the largest rainfall totals during the end of the week and into the weekend and I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk in red and with a lower risk across areas highlighted in yellow

Within the highlighted red areas a general 15mm to 25mm of rainfall is expected, but with totals up to 30mm to 40mm possible with perhaps a risk of some localised flooding, especially in prone areas, whilst further south and east precipitation totals aren’t forecast to be as large, but a general 10mm to 20mm is still possible here as well

weather map, wind

The other cause for concern, given the time of year, is the strength of the wind with southern, south-western and western areas of the UK at risk of wind speeds in excess of 40mph to 50mph throughout the weekend and I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk of the strong winds in red and with a lower risk across the areas in yellow. It should also be highlighted that some particularly poor conditions are likely at sea through the Irish Sea and down towards the English Channel as well with poor marine conditions expected.

So, as you can see not a particularly good weekend of weather is to be expected with some particularly inclement conditions for the time of year expected, with anything from heavy rain and showers, to possible thunderstorms and also strong winds as well. Poor driving conditions are to be expected on many of the major motorway networks this weekend given a combination of surface water and spray and also the strong winds and particularly so across those areas highlighted red for both heavy rainfall and strong winds.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Wednesday 19 June, 9am

Heat, humidity and thunderstorms

There is a significant likelihood that today (Wednesday 19th) will be the warmest day of the year so far recorded across the UK. As highlighted within the weekly outlook, the middle of the week is set to be particularly warm and humid as low pressure to the South of the UK, over in the near Continent, allows for the development of a very warm and humid air mass to filter into England and Wales and particularly across Southern and South-east England.

weather map

At the moment maximum temperatures across urban areas of South-east England are likely to range between 24C and 28C tomorrow but perhaps with the possibility, depending on exact sunshine amounts, of temperatures reaching the very high value of 30C. The heat and humidity may well be responsible for the development of some particularly heavy and thundery showers across parts of the South and South-east and some forecast models do indicate a risk of some heavy showers or thunderstorms across those areas Tuesday night and into today before clearing away. I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk of the highest temperatures through Wednesday and also at greatest risk of some thunderstorms within the next day or so in red and with a lower risk extending away from the South-east.

A much cooler and fresher end to the week is to be expected and unfortunately the signal for an unsettled weekend remains with good forecast model agreement on quite a noteworthy area of low pressure moving into the UK bringing many areas showers, longer spells of rain, possible thunderstorms and also some windy weather as well. More details on this later in the week, but prepare for a particularly poor weekend ahead for the middle of June.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 17 June, 10am

A mixed week ahead

The coming week will provide the UK with quite a variety of conditions, but the primary feature of interest will be the development of some very warm and humid conditions across parts of England and Wales around the middle of the week and a risk of thunder.

The coming week will be dominated by low pressure to the south and eventually south-east of the UK whilst a ridge of high pressure will affect northern and western areas at times. The location of the low pressure will signal the incursion of some very warm and humid conditions off the Continent for a time around the middle of the week and also bring a persistent risk of rain and eventually thunderstorms to more southern areas. This is in contrast with more northern areas of the UK which are forecast to have a predominantly dry week.

So the week starts with some patchy rain and showers across Ireland, England and Wales in what will be quite a cloudy day and with a growing risk of some heavy and thundery showers developing across parts of South-west England into the afternoon and evening today (Monday). This risk of some locally heavy and perhaps thundery showers then persists across some central and southern areas during Tuesday, whilst for Scotland, Northern England and Ireland the day is predominantly fine with some bright or sunny spells and just a few isolated showers.

weather map

The middle of the week is where the ‘fun and games’ potentially really begin as a feed of very warm and humid air makes inroads across a large portion of England and Wales, but it is generally across central, southern and particularly south-east England that the risk of thunderstorms increases during Wednesday and into Thursday. There remain some uncertainties over the details, but I have highlighted on the associated image which areas are currently at greatest risk of some potentially severe thunderstorms bringing anything from frequent lightning to some torrential downpours, especially across the areas highlighted in red

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 14 June, 3pm

Local forecasts for events this weekend

Cholmondeley Pageant of Power

Generally an unsettled weekend, but with both late Friday and Saturday producing the most unsettled conditions. Showers merging to give longer spells of rain later today (14th) before then clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers during Saturday, heavy precipitation possible later on Friday and with some of the showers possibly heavy on Saturday, but these will be ‘hit and miss’. Sunday best day of the weekend generally dry with some bright or sunny spells and low risk of a few showers.

  • Precipitation: Rainfall totals (14th to 16th) expected to range between 10mm and 20mm.
  • Max Temperatures:  14C to 18C.


Download Festival

Rain and showers developing later today (14th) and continuing overnight clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers during Saturday. Some heavy rain possible for a time overnight into the 15th and some of the showers could be locally heavy for a time on Saturday (15th). Sunday best day of the weekend with a few showers but otherwise mainly dry with bright or sunny spells.

  • Precipitation: Rainfall totals (14th to 16th) expected to range between 5mm and 15mm.
  • Max Temperatures: 15C to 18C.


Isle of Wight Festival

Some rain and showers developing later today (14th) before clearing overnight to then leave a mixture of sunshine and showers across the region for Saturday. Sunday expected to be predominantly dry with some bright spells, but becoming predominantly cloudy.

  • Precipitation: Rainfall totals (14th to 16th) ranging between 4mm to 8mm.
  • Max Temperatures:  13C to 16C.


Three Counties Show

Rain and showers developing later today (14th) before clearing overnight to then leave a mixture of sunshine and showers across the region for Saturday, some heavy rainfall possible overnight and some of the showers may be heavy for a time during Saturday. Sunday expected to be predominantly dry with some bright spells, but a few isolated showers are possible. 

  • Precipitation: Rainfall totals (14th to 16th) ranging between 10mm to 20mm.
  • Max Temperatures:  15C to 17C.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 14 June, 10am

Remaining unsettled – further showers or spells of rain

The change to unsettled conditions has brought some rain or showers to many areas within the last few days and also some localised thunderstorms as well. The coming weekend will maintain the unsettled theme as low pressure remains influential across many areas of the country sustaining that signal for showers or longer spells of rain across most areas

The process begins today (Friday) with a developing area of low pressure and its associated frontal systems approaching from the south-west. Some heavy showers are possible ahead of the main frontal system, but a more organised band of heavy rain is expected to move into Ireland through the latter stages of the morning and then continue a progression north and eastwards across all areas through the rest of the day. The band of rain will be accompanied by some strong and perhaps gusty winds and a few localised thunderstorms are possible in places later in the afternoon.

Friday’s low pressure then becomes situated across many areas of the UK during Saturday and brings a mixture of showers and longer spells of rain. Many areas of the country are at risk of some heavy and perhaps locally thundery showers, but with the greatest risk of thunder expected across eastern regions of the UK. A weather front stretching back into western areas of the UK may well organise the showers into more persistent rain for a time across Ireland for example and it is also likely to be particularly windy for parts of England and Wales with a fresh or strong westerly wind and these perhaps near gale force across exposed coasts and hills, so not a particularly good day for hill walking.

Sunday, at the moment, is likely to be the best day out of the weekend but it is still likely to produce a mixture of sunshine and showers. The showers will be slow moving and potentially heavy into the afternoon, but equally in-between the showers there will be some drier and brighter intervals as well. A developing area of low pressure over the Bay of Biscay may well bring some heavy rain into south-west England later in the day, but overall Sunday is likely to be drier and brighter than compared with Saturday.

The unsettled theme continues into next week and some heavy and perhaps thundery rain is possible for the new week across southern areas, but the details of that at this stage remain uncertain. Unfortunately and as I have mentioned in previous blogs, these unsettled conditions look set to continue throughout the remainder of June, so apart from a few better days at times, especially across southern areas, the outlook through the second half of the month isn’t particularly good with lower pressure likely to be more dominant than higher pressure.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 10 June, 10am

All change – turning wet and windy

The excellent weather to start June, which has dominated throughout the opening week or more, is set to come to an end this week as the high pressure that brought the settled conditions is replaced by a series of low pressure systems moving up into the UK from the south-west.

At the moment Monday will be the best day out of the week as further predominantly dry and settled conditions affect most areas, despite more cloud than of late. Some bright or sunny spells will break through during the day, particularly across central and western areas of the UK and again for many areas it will be dry. Frontal systems approaching Ireland will herald the arrival of some rain or showers across the Republic of Ireland in particular into the afternoon and evening.

As we progress into Tuesday more active and significant weather fronts will gradually move north and eastwards across the UK and herald a more unsettled day across many areas. The middle of the week will be particularly unsettled as a series of low pressure systems, originating to the southwest, move north and east across many areas and bring showers or longer spells of rain. Some heavy rainfall is possible at times and there is also a risk that some of the showers may well be thundery in places and a general 15mm to 25mm of rainfall is possible quite widely across western areas of the UK in particular. However, the risk of flooding is generally minimal given the very dry conditions of late. In association with these areas of low pressure and weather fronts will also be some quite windy conditions as well, especially compared with of late, so around the middle of the week in particular expect cloudy, wet and rather windy conditions to be dominant.

The week ends with some drier and brighter conditions across southern and south-eastern areas on Friday, but another low pressure and frontal system approaches from the west. As a result, at the moment, northern and western areas of the UK will continue the wet and windy theme into Friday, whilst a brief window of drier and brighter conditions affects southern and south-eastern areas.

Temperatures through this week are forecast to be around average and it will remain quite warm at times, but the introduction of more unsettled conditions will make it feel cooler than of late, particularly so in any persistent wet weather and also the windier conditions. At the moment the cooler and more unsettled conditions are forecast to continue into next weekend as well and medium and longer range weather data is suggesting that there is little sign of a quick return to the fine, warm and settled conditions of late. As a result, for the foreseeable future, a far more unsettled spell of weather is now to be expected.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 6 June, 11.30am

A fine, warm and sunny weekend

The week so far has produced some of the best weather the UK has experienced so far this year, with many areas of the UK experiencing some prolonged spells of sunshine and also some warm temperatures. The primary reason, as highlighted in the last blog, is due to high pressure and if you’re hoping that the current weather will last into the coming weekend, you’re in luck!

High pressure is forecast to remain an influential feature of the weather through the weekend across many areas of the UK and this will signal further fine and settled conditions during Friday and through into Saturday and Sunday. At the moment latest forecast models do signal some prolonged cloud breaks, as a result sunny spells are expected to be frequent, if not prolonged despite some variable amounts of cloud developing at times. There remains a low risk of a few isolated heavy showers in places, perhaps across Southern Scotland, down the Pennines and also perhaps across some far southern counties of England as well by Sunday. But clearly, for the most part, many areas will be dry, sunny and warm.

Temperatures across inland areas this weekend will maintain a steady range of between 18C and 22C, though up to 23C or 24C can’t be ruled out across some urban areas, especially in any prolonged spells of sunshine, so again it will be warm. Refreshing sea breezes are expected to develop quite widely around all coastal areas.

After what will be, by the end of the weekend, a good 5 to 7 days worth of fine and settled weather the outlook, unfortunately, doesn’t look good at all. There is a clear and strong signal within the forecast models for low pressure to become increasingly dominant as we progress towards mid-June. As a result next week, at the moment, is forecast to bring about a significant change in the weather with some rain or showers expected to develop, of which could well be heavy and perhaps thundery as well. In essence, make the most of the fine and settled conditions this weekend as it is all change through next week and beyond.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 3 June, 9.30am

Fine, settled and increasingly warm

The start of June is upon us and so is the first of the three summer months and what a great opening week to summer the UK is expected to have. High pressure is forecast to be an influential feature of the weather throughout the week and at the moment, into next weekend as well. There are some usual exceptions to the rule, which will be discussed, but generally the week as a whole will be fine and settled and increasingly warm for many.

Monday and Tuesday start with pressure widely above 1028mb and in fact over 1030mb for many areas during today (Monday). A cloudier spell of weather is expected across Scotland and Ireland through the day, but for many despite some afternoon cloud bubbling up today (Monday) then some prolonged spells of sunshine is to be expected. A similar day is expected on Tuesday with further prolonged spells of sunshine expected nationwide after some early mist and fog patches clear and with light winds it will feel particularly warm.

As we approach mid-week and beyond, the primary area of high pressure is forecast to decline away to the north of the UK into Scandinavia and allow for a weak area of low pressure just to the east of the UK to perhaps influence the weather a little. As a result the middle and latter half of the week at the moment is forecast to remain warm with further bright or sunny spells, but there may well be more in the way of cloud developing at times, with a lower risk of prolonged sunshine, especially for northern and eastern areas of the UK. Also given that pressure is expected to be lower the warmth of the day may also trigger a few locally heavy and perhaps thundery showers. It is very difficult to pin-point exactly where these will develop, but they will be isolated and many areas will remain dry.

As I've mentioned a number of times, it will be a warm week. At the moment Monday and Tuesday will see maximum temperatures ranging between 16C and 20C generally across the UK. Temperatures are expected to rise further between Wednesday and Friday with highs ranging between 18C and 22C, though temperatures may reach 23C or 24C across some southern areas by Friday. It should be noted that some Eastern Coastal areas may well be noticeable cooler at times and sea breezes are also to be expected. High UV levels are expected this week as well so slap on that sun lotion if you’re going to be out and about for any length of time.

At the moment the warm or very warm and bright or sunny conditions are forecast to continue into next weekend as well, but again the warmth and possible increasingly humidity may well lead to some further heavy and perhaps thundery showers in places. But overall the opening full week of June is look very good indeed for many areas.

Do I think this is the start of a long and hot summer?...The answer to that is no, unfortunately I don't, so make the most of the upcoming weather.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

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