Emergency breakdown

August 2013

View our older posts from The AA Special Operations Response Team (AASORT) and expert meteorologist Matthew Hugo.

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August blog posts

Thursday 29 August, 1pm

Cooler, but Bright and Breezy

The end of the week and into the weekend will produce one primary change in the weather and that will be a significant change in temperature across the UK, especially when you compare Friday with Saturday. The primary reason for the change is due to the introduction, albeit temporary, of a much cooler north-westerly wind later on Friday and through into Saturday.

So, Friday is the day of change with a deep area of low pressure expected to the north of the UK with its associated weather fronts moving south and east across the UK through the day. The weather fronts are forecast to be rather weak so whilst some rain or showers are expected, no significant or heavy precipitation is expected. Ahead of the fronts many southern and south-eastern areas will be mainly dry with some bright or sunny spells and Friday, for many, will remain quite warm.

As the weather fronts clear away to the south-east on Friday the cooler north-westerly air mass is introduced. Temperatures on Friday will range between 20C and 25C across most areas of England and Wales and between 16C and 20C across Scotland and Ireland. However, as we move into Saturday temperatures are forecast to range between 15C and 20C across southern areas of the UK and between 13C and 16C further north and west, which is signaling a drop of at least 5 or 6 degrees and given a moderate or fresh north-westerly wind Saturday will feel markedly cooler and fresher. Saturday it-self is expected to see a mixture of sunshine and showers, these most frequent across Scotland, whilst southern and western areas of the UK generally have a mainly dry and bright day with some sunny spells.

Into Sunday and high pressure is set to return to most areas of England and Wales as it builds into these areas during the day. As a result after a rather chilly start on Sunday morning most of England and Wales will be dry with some bright or sunny spells. A strong south-westerly wind across parts of Ireland and Scotland will signal more cloud here and perhaps with some rain or drizzle later in the day.

So overall not a bad weekend but with the main emphasis being on the change to markedly cooler and fresher conditions between Friday and Saturday. At the moment early next week is set fair as high pressure dominates, but this isn’t set to last and quite a cool and autumnal weather pattern may well develop from the middle of the week onwards, so early September is currently looking quite unsettled, especially after the opening few days.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 27 August, 4pm

Dorset Steam Fair

Both Wednesday and Thursday are set to be dry with some bright or sunny spells, particularly so on Wednesday when longer spells of sunshine is possible, whilst Thursday may well progress towards cloudier conditions through the day, but again it should remain predominantly dry. Temperatures around 20C - 22C.

Friday

The end of the week is set to become rather cloudy as weak weather fronts move acros the region. Cloud may become thick enough into Friday afternoon to produce some mainly light rain or showers, but no significant precipitation is to be expected at this stage. Temperatures around 20C.

Weekend

At the present time both Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be predominantly dry as well. A few scattered mainly light showers cannot be ruled out, but these aren't expected to lead to any significant precipitation totals. Some bright or sunny spells are expected at times, but noticeably it will feel markedly cooler and fresher than previous days with temperatures reaching highs of around 17C or 18C and turning quite chilly by night, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Tuesday 27 August, 9am

Often fine and settled

The Bank Holiday weekend and the start of the last full week of August are providing some particularly pleasant conditions. This is due, primarily, to high pressure influencing the weather.

The coming week is set fair across many areas as high pressure remains influential. This isn’t the whole story and there are some exceptions, but generally a quiet week of weather ahead is forecast.

As we progress into Tuesday some subtle changes take place across northern and western areas of the UK as a weak weather front moves down into Scotland, Ireland and later Northern England. This will increase cloud amounts here and also produce some patchy rain or showers. To the south of those areas it will remain dry, sunny and warm if not very warm.

Wednesday

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure (1020mb-1024mb) influence many areas of the UK, as a result a dry day is expected with bright or sunny spells across many regions, though once again cloud may well increase across parts of the north and west of the UK later in the day. Temperatures won’t be as high as the start of the week, but will still be near average, so feeling pleasantly warm.

End of the week

Towards the end of the week high pressure situated to the south-west of the UK will maintain an influence across parts of England and Wales, so especially from the Midlands southwards the week finishes on a fine and settled note, with further bright or sunny spells and feeling pleasantly warm. In contrast Scotland, Ireland and Northern England will maintain a greater risk of thicker cloud at times with some patchy rain or showers as weak weather fronts move into these areas of the UK and thus temperatures will also be cooler here as well.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 23 August, 9am

Weekend Event Forecasts

Reading Festival
Some bright or sunny spells and feeling warm and humid throughout the remainder of Friday, but with an increasing risk of some localised heavy showers developing by evening and after dark. Overnight and into Saturday and increasingly unsettled conditions will bring the risk of some heavy and perhaps thundery downpours, but these will be 'hit and miss'. Some further showers or spells of rain are expected during Saturday, but with conditions gradually improving. Sunday and into Bank Holiday Monday are forecast to be predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells, especially by Monday and feeling pleasantly warm. A general 5mm to 10mm of rainfall is expected overnight in Saturday, but perhaps up to 15mm is possible. Some poor surface conditions may develop on Saturday, but these should improve through the rest of the weekend.

Leeds Festival
Some localised and heavy, thundery downpours have already brought some poor surface conditions, with localised flooding to the Leeds festival within the last 24 hours and unfortunately the risk of further heavy and perhaps thundery downpours is forecast to continue or re-develop overnight and into Saturday. A window of drier and brighter conditions is expected through much of Friday, but with the risk of heavy and perhaps thundery showers then developing this evening and overnight into Saturday. More prolonged spells of rain are possible at times into Saturday as well. A general 15mm of rainfall is expected, but this may well rise up to 20mm to 30mm if any localised torrential downpours develop. Some particularly poor surface conditions may re-develop during Saturday. An improving picture is then expected during Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday with much drier and settled conditions developing.

Creamfields
Bright or sunny spells and feeling warm across the area throughout most of Friday, but generally becoming cloudier through the afternoon and into the evening. Overnight and into Saturday some heavy showers or perhaps longer spells of rain may develop across the region bringing a risk of a general 5mm to 10mm of rainfall at the moment through into Saturday. Some poor surface conditions may develop temporarily, but improving conditions through Saturday and then particularly during Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday will lead to a fine end to the weekend with some bright or sunny spells and feeling pleasantly warm.

IOW Scooter Rally
Mainly dry and fine through Friday with some bright or sunny spells and feeling warm. there is the risk of some rain or showers for a time overnight and into Saturday, but at the moment precipitation totals ranging between 2mm and 5mm are expected, and perhaps up to 10mm, but with no significant or heavy rainfall currently expected. The remainder of the weekend will see predominantly dry conditions becoming dominant with some bright or sunny spells, especially by Bank Holiday Monday.

Billing Aquadrome Bank Holiday Weekend (Northampton)
Mainly dry with some bright or sunny spells throughout the majority of Friday and it will be warm and quite humid. Later on Friday and overnight into Saturday showers or longer spells of rain are expected to develop, with perhaps some locally heavy and thundery downpours possible. This is set to lead to quite a wet start to the Bank Holiday Weekend across the region with a general 10mm to 20mm of rainfall possible, but perhaps rising above this if any localised downpours do develop over the area. Some poor surface conditions are, as a result, expected during Saturday in particular. However, conditions will slowly improve through the rest of the weekend with some bright or sunny spells developing and also becoming mainly dry, especially by Sunday and into Bank Holiday Monday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 23 August, 9am

Bank Holiday Weekend - Wet Start, Slowly Improving

The final Bank Holiday weekend of the summer is set to provide quite a mixture of conditions, some particularly heavy and perhaps thundery rain or showers on Saturday, but with then a gradual improvement through the rest of the weekend, so all is not completely lost!

weather map

Of primary importance, however, is the development of quite a complex weather pattern over the UK later today (Friday) and through into Saturday. Quite a warm and humid air mass is currently situated over the UK and will remain in place through the rest of the day. At the same time, as Friday progresses increasingly unsettled conditions are forecast to develop as low pressure becomes temporarily dominant with weather fronts also evident as well. At the moment a band of rain and showers is forecast to slowly move eastwards across the UK through the day. However, by evening as these weather fronts interact with the warm and humid air over England and Wales in particular it will lead to the development of some particularly heavy and perhaps thundery rain or showers. I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk of seeing up to 25-35mm of rain, and perhaps locally more in red, whilst a lower risk exists across the areas highlighted yellow;

Central and particularly Eastern areas of England may well have quite a ‘lively’ Friday night with some torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible. A large amount of the predicted rainfall totals may well fall in quite a short space of time, so there is a risk of flooding in places, but given that such a large area is at risk almost anywhere within the red area may experience some particularly heavy rain within the next 24 hours.

Saturday is a wet day for many areas. Showers or longer spells of rain, some perhaps thundery still, will persist across England and Wales before only slowly easing and dying away later in the day. A frontal system approaching from the west will also bring more persistent rain into Ireland as well during the course of Saturday afternoon. Some drier and brighter intervals are possible at times, but generally expect Saturday to be quite a wet day for many areas of the UK.

Now for the good news. As the weekend progresses pressure is forecast to steadily rise across many areas of the UK. Sunday may well still produce some scattered showers or patchy rain in places, particularly so across southern areas of the UK, whilst further north it may well be predominantly dry and bright. This improving trend is then set to continue into Bank Holiday Monday with pressure rising up to 1020mb at the moment and with most areas of the UK experiencing a dry day with some bright or sunny spells. However, Scotland and Ireland may become cloudier through the day with some patchy rain or drizzle at times.

Temperatures over the weekend are forecast to be somewhat cooler than of late, with Saturday in particular feeling particularly cool where any persistent wet weather is in evidence. It should feel warmer by Sunday and then particularly into Bank Holiday Monday given relatively light winds and some sunshine. So all in all, it’s a poor start but with a progression towards improving conditions by Monday.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 19 August, 10am

Often Dry and Settled.....Except Mid-Week

After a particularly unsettled weekend, especially on Saturday, the coming week will produce something that is more akin to mid to late August as high pressure dominates the weather overall, particularly both during the start of the week and also during the latter half of the week, with a temporary spell of unsettled conditions mid-week.

Monday begins with quite a cool start and also a cool west or north-westerly wind. This will produce a few scattered showers across northern and western areas of the UK, but generally Monday will be dry for the majority with some bright or sunny spells at times, despite cloud develop during the day inland. As we move into Tuesday there is forecast to be little change. High pressure (1028mb) situated just to the south of the UK maintains predominantly fine and settled conditions for most areas, but particularly across England and Wales. In bright or sunny spells and light winds it will feel pleasantly warm. A subtle change takes place from the west across Ireland during the afternoon as outbreaks of rain develop and eventually move into Scotland later.

The middle of the week sees a brief interruption to the generally quiet and settled conditions. Low pressure is forecast to move into the UK and generally bring a far cloudier day to many areas of the UK with some showers or perhaps spells of rain, some of which may be heavy, at least for a time, across northern areas of the UK. Very little precipitation is likely to affect southern areas during the day.

As we then move towards the end of the week high pressure returns and brings a predominantly fine and settled end to the week for many areas and also becoming warmer thanks to a south or south-easterly wind. By Thursday and Friday temperatures across England and Wales are likely to be ranging between 24C and 28C. At the moment the high pressure isn’t set to last and a possible progression towards lower pressure from the west may introduce the risk of some heavy and perhaps thundery showers across parts of the west and south-west of the UK by the end of Friday, but there is some uncertainties over this at this stage.

So overall not a bad week, quite a ‘typical’ August week with some unsettled weather mid-week, but of which will be sandwiched between 4 predominantly dry and sunny days and becoming warmer. Unfortunately the early signs for the last Bank Holiday of the summer are not good. Low pressure is forecast to move into the UK and there is quite high confidence for this. As a result the weekend of the 24th to the 26th currently looks to be unsettled with a risk of showers and perhaps longer spells of rain, clearly more information on this later in the coming week.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 16 August, 11am

Busy Bees

The AA will be kept busy off the road as well as on it this weekend. We will have a significant presence at a number of summer events. If you are lucky enough to see the guys, give them wave;

Festival Assist

V Festival Chelmsford Friday 16th – Monday 19th August

  • Andy, Justin and the rest of the crew will be on hand to look after you should there be any car trouble. We have several patrols, a AA SORT Land Rover and a Key Assist vehicle on site
  • As with other events, if you need us please call our dedicated Festival Assist Number 0800 072 3642


V Festival Weston Park Friday 16th – Monday 19th August

  • Mark, Brian, Paul and our very own Darron Burness will be on site at Weston Park along with AA SORT Land Rovers and a Key Assist Patrol
  • The AA will be running our dedicated event breakdown line. Any problems just call 0800 072 3642


Northampton Balloon Festival – Friday 16th – Sunday 18th August

  • The AA SORT legend that is 'Spider' will be there to help should you have any car problems
  • As with other events, if you need us please call our dedicated Festival Assist Number 0800 072 3642


Mendips Cycle Sportive - Bath

  • Dave, John and Nick will be providing service for this event. Our role here is not operational, however supporting event safety.
  • The AA will be supporting this event with SORT Land Rovers and Motorbikes.


If you are fortunate enough to be heading to V Festival or any of the other events this weekend, then from everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend! If the car parks get muddy, then follow our advice!

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Friday 16 August, 9am

Wet and Windy on Saturday, Bright and Breezy on Sunday

The coming weekend is still forecast to deliver a rather autumnal spell of weather, particularly on Saturday in association with quite a noteworthy area of low pressure that is forecast to pass to the north of the UK during Saturday. Active weather fronts, associated with the low pressure, are forecast to move eastwards across many areas during Saturday bringing a spell of wet and windy weather, whilst Sunday produces a mixture of sunshine and showers.

So the weekend starts dry and perhaps even with some bright spells across eastern areas of the UK. In contrast an overcast start is expected for many areas of Scotland and Ireland with outbreaks of light or moderate, locally heavy and this will be accompanied by a strong south or south-westerly wind, perhaps nearing gale force across exposed coasts and hills. This zone of wet and windy weather will then spread eastwards across all areas of the UK clearing away into the North Sea by the end of the day and with a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers following.

weather map

Despite the risk of some heavy rain for a time on Saturday, fortunately the weather fronts are expected to move across the UK quite quickly, which is expected to lower the risk of possible flooding. That being said the combination of some particularly strong winds and heavy rain for a time is still likely to lead to some difficult travelling conditions as well as produce poor conditions for outdoor activities and I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk in red and with a lower risk across the areas in yellow;

Into Sunday and the low pressure and its associated frontal systems clear away to the north and east respectively and the UK is then left in a run of cool west or north-westerly winds, these remaining quite strong especially across the northern half of the UK. A general mixture of sunshine and showers are expected, these showers heaviest and most frequent across Scotland and Ireland, whilst for England and Wales some prolonged drier and brighter intervals are expected in-between the showers, despite feeling quite cool.

Finally, the outlook remains good it not very good as next week progresses with summer weather set to return. High pressure is still forecast to become an influential feature of the weather, particularly after mid-week with some warm spells of sunshine returning and many areas becoming dry. More details on next week, as usual, will be issued on Monday (19th).

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 15 August, 11am

V Festival Weather

With the AA busy at a couple of events this weekend, Matt takes a closer look at the weather for us;

Festival Assist

V Festival Chelmsford

  • Early rain is expected on the 16th, but this will gradually clear away to then leave a predominantly dry Friday afternoon with just a low risk of a few isolated showers. After a dry start on Saturday morning a spell of wet and windy weather is expected across the region by late morning and through into the afternoon with the risk of some heavy bursts of rain at times and quite gusty winds. Overnight rain will then clear to leave a mixture of sunny spells and a few showers on Sunday in a moderate or fresh westerly wind. Precipitation totals in the range of 5mm to 10mm are expected over the three days, but potentially up to 15mm with perhaps some poor surface conditions by late Saturday in particular.
  • As with other events, if you need us please call our dedicated Festival Assist Number 0800 072 3642


V Festival Weston Park

  • A bright and breezy day is expected on Friday with sunny spells and just a few scattered showers. After a dry start to Saturday it will soon turn cloudy with a spell of wet and windy weather by late morning and through into the afternoon, before clearing away later in the day but with residual showers possible. A bright and breeze day is expected on Sunday with some sunny spells and just a few showers. Precipitation totals ranging between 10mm and 20mm are expected over the three days and some poor surface conditions are possible by the latter half of Saturday in particular
  • The AA will be running our dedicated event breakdown line. Any problems just call 0800 072 3642


Mendips Cycle Sportive - Bath

  • Some early rain is possible on Friday (16th) but this then clearing away to leave a mainly dry day with bright or sunny spells. Saturday will start cloudy and mostly likely wet with a spell of rain for a time and this accompanied by some strong winds. The rain will clear away to the east during the afternoon to then leave a mixture of sunshine and showers but remaining windy. Into Sunday and a mixture of sunshine and showers is expected with it remaining quite windy. Precipitation totals ranging between 5mm and 10mm, but possibly up to 15mm to 20mm may occur depending on the frequency of the showers behind the more persistent rain on Saturday. Some poor surface conditions may develop during the course of Saturday in particular.
  • The AA will be supporting this event with SORT Land Rovers and Motorbikes.


If you are fortunate enough to be heading to V Festival this weekend, then from everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend! If the car parks get muddy, then follow our advice!

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Wednesday 14 August, 9am

Increasingly Unsettled – A Wet and Windy Outlook

The weather so far this week has been quite benign, but that is set to change as the rest of the week becomes markedly more unsettled now and that theme will step up a gear into the coming weekend as quite an active and deep area of low pressure for the time of year, affects many areas.

weather map

During Thursday and Friday a series of weather fronts, or also known to meteorologists as ‘frontal waves’, are forecast to move across parts of the north and west of the UK in particular, especially during Thursday and overnight into Friday. Showers or longer spells of rain are forecast to become widespread across many areas of Ireland, Scotland and Northern England. Parts of Northern Ireland, South-west Scotland and Northern England in particular are at risk of seeing some quite large rainfall totals between now and the end of Friday. I have highlighted which areas are at greatest risk of rainfall totals of up to 30mm to 40mm in red, with perhaps up to 50mm in places along with a subsequent risk of flooding and with a lower risk across the areas in yellow

As we move towards the end of Friday and into the weekend a deepening area of low pressure is forecast to moving across the North Atlantic and towards the UK. The area of low pressure is then expected to pass to the North of the UK over the weekend. Active weather fronts are forecast to move eastwards on Saturday bringing a spell of wet and windy conditions to many areas, but especially across the North. Into Sunday and as the low pressure clears away to the north-east a particularly strong (for the time of year) west or north-westerly wind is forecast to develop across many areas, with perhaps wind gusts up to 40mph to 50mph across exposed coasts and hills of northern areas of the UK.

A change to more settled conditions is still expected into next week, so all is not lost for the rest of August, but before then the next 3 to 5 days will have a distinctly unsettled and almost autumnal feel. Further details on the weekend will be issued on Friday (16th) morning.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 12 August, 11am

Predominantly Unsettled, Especially In the North and West

The weather on the approach to mid-August is forecast to generally remain unsettled, particularly so across northern and western areas of the UK, whilst more southern areas do experience more in the way of drier and brighter intervals.

The week starts on a particularly cool theme due to a north-westerly air mass affecting many areas of the UK. This is forecast to bring a mixture of sunshine and showers across most areas on Monday and into Tuesday, but with the heaviest showers expected across northern and eastern areas of the UK. A weather front moving into western areas on Tuesday may well bring thicker cloud and perhaps with a risk of longer spells of rain. In-between the showers there will be some drier and brighter intervals at times.

A warming trend is expected towards mid-week as the wind direction becomes more south-westerly as low pressure dominates to the north-west of the UK, whilst high pressure is influential just to the south. The low pressure to the north-west however, will be responsible for bringing weather fronts into northern and western areas of the UK during Wednesday and also through into Thursday. As a result Scotland, Ireland and Northern England are likely to be quite cloudy mid-week with some rain or showers at times, but again it will feel warmer than earlier in the week. Some precipitation is possible in the south, but generally drier and brighter conditions are expected here and it will feel warm or very warm in any sunshine

At the moment the week is set to end with further showers across northern and western areas moving south-eastwards through the day, which may also bring somewhat cooler conditions as well. Also a developing area of low pressure, approaching from the west, is likely to bring a renewed risk of some heavy rain and perhaps strong winds into western areas later in the day on Friday and this is then set to dominate into next weekend bringing a particularly unsettled weekend at the moment.

However, there are signs of better weather within the longer term. Whilst the details remain elusive, higher pressure is forecast to become more influential during the final third of August. As a result a return to drier, brighter, sunnier and warmer conditions is possible at the moment towards the end of the month.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Friday 9 August, 3pm

Boomtown, but no Rats

With the summer in full swing and the school summer holidays upon us we take a look at what we have been up to this week and what we are up to this weekend.

The Week started with thunderstorms, high rainfall totals and flash flooding. Since then things have been a little calmer as we gear up towards a busy two weeks of Festival work, where we will be at Reading, Leeds and both V Festival sites. Before we get to those we have something else to do:

Boomtown Festival

  • We will be on site to cover the Sunday evening and early Monday morning as people leave the festival. If you need us please call our dedicated Festival Assist Number 0800 072 3642

Whatever you have planned for the weekend on behalf of everyone at AA SORT we hope you have a cracking weekend, enjoy the sunshine!

Ian, your man on Twitter over at @AASORT

Monday 5 August, 9am

Cool and Showery

After a particularly wet star to the week the last few days have been a marked improvement with many areas seeing some sunshine and with pleasantly warm temperatures, despite a few showers at times. The week is forecast to end on a cloudier and more unsettled theme as a weak frontal system moves across most areas of the UK overnight tonight and through Friday. As a result some patchy rain, drizzle and showers are forecast to move across many areas through Thursday night and into Friday, but with then clearer and showery conditions following during the second half of Friday with some sunny spells.

The weekend, at the moment, is essentially a weekend of two halves really. A minor ridge of high pressure is forecast to affect many Central and Southern areas of the UK on Saturday, as a result the Midlands, Wales, Southern, South-west and South-east England are all forecast to be mainly dry with bright or sunny spells and just a small risk of a few isolated showers. A more unsettled south-westerly air mass further North and West is likely to produce a greater risk of showers for Scotland and Ireland in particular.

As we move into Sunday the high pressure is forecast to decline towards the South-west of the UK as low pressure to the North becomes increasingly influential and the combination of the two features will introduce quite a cool North-westerly wind across many areas through the day. Most areas of the UK are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers, these will be heaviest and most frequent across Northern areas of the UK where some localised thunderstorms are possible and perhaps with more prolonged spells of rain. There is the possibility of a more organised area of rain moving into some central and Southern areas of England and Wales as well overnight on Saturday and into Sunday. The development surrounding this area of low pressure still has some uncertainties, but again a more organised zone of rain may well move across some central and Southern regions for a time during Sunday.

A quick look at next week a reasonable start to the week is expected across more Southern areas of the UK in particular, but low pressure is never too far away. As a result as next week progresses the week is forecast to become unsettled across most areas, but especially across the North and West where heavy precipitation is possible at times. It is also likely to turn into quite a noticeably cool week as well given that the general wind direction through next week will be from the West or North-west.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Monday 5 August, 4pm

Weather Forecasters warn of floods risk – our advice

archive picture

The AA’s flood rescue Land Rovers are working across northern England, the South-west and Wales following flash flooding

While the heavy rain is make-or-break for England cricket fans at Old Trafford, it’s often the case on the roads too. Water levels can change quickly and dramatically, so unfortunately people are getting into trouble. If you’re driving and become stuck in flood water, it’s generally best to stay in the car and phone for help rather than try to get out, unless the water is shallow, stationary and you can see the ground beneath the water. Keep an eye on the forecast and, if it’s going to be bad where you are, move your car to higher ground if you can

Links to all our driving advice pages can be found at the top right of this page. take the time to give them a read, you may be surprised by a few things.

Please stay safe if you are travelling in the heavy rain and remember- Think Don't Sink! Stay out of flood water and find a safer route.

Darron Burness, AA SORT Operations Manager

Monday 5 August, 9am

A Changeable Week Ahead

As indicated some time ago the weather during the start of August has indeed become unsettled and that theme will continue throughout the coming week. However, Monday (today) in particular will be the worst day of the week as low pressure brings some persistent and often heavy rain to a large portion of the UK, but particularly so across Wales and more Western and Northern areas of England. I have highlighted which areas are at risk of further heavy and potentially disruptive rain through the rest of Monday in red, whilst a lower risk exists across the areas in yellow;

weather map

The regions highlighted red are widely at risk of seeing precipitation totals, by the end of Monday, reach 25mm to 35mm, but with a distinct possibility of precipitation totals reaching and passing 40mm to 50mm more locally. Some flooding is possible as Monday progresses and particularly so in more prone areas. Regions highlighted yellow are likely to see a general 15mm to 25mm overall, but with some local variation expected here also as some localised heavier bursts of rain may bring higher totals in places.

Tuesday through to Thursday then sees an improvement in conditions as the UK’s weather generally progresses towards a simple mixture of sunshine and showers. However, both Tuesday and Thursday in particular are likely to produce some prolonged drier and brighter intervals for some areas, given that the showers will be ‘hit and miss’. Wednesday does seem to be a day of greater risk of some slow moving and perhaps heavy, thundery downpours during the afternoon. Once again it is very difficult to pin-point which regions will be at greatest risk, but the ingredients are certainly there for some heavy showers and given light winds on Wednesday where any showers do develop then they could produce some locally very large rainfall totals within a short space of time.

At the moment the week is expected to end with a set of frontal systems crossing the UK in association with an area of low pressure near to Iceland. As a result a spell of rain or showers is forecast to move across most areas of the UK for a time on Friday, but behind this it will turn drier with a mixture of sunshine and showers.

So all in all quite an unsettled week, but some areas will see some prolonged drier and brighter intervals at times after Monday. The medium and long term remains unchanged with some drier and brighter conditions affecting southern areas of the UK in particular, but generally an unsettled theme is forecast, especially across northern and western areas of the UK up to and including the middle of the month.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

Thursday 1 August, 11am

An Unsettled Outlook

The very warm and humid conditions of today (Thursday) have been brought about by low pressure developing just across western areas of the UK and combining with higher pressure further east to allow for a southerly wind to develop. The high temperatures and humidity will only be a temporary feature of the UK’s weather as markedly cooler and fresher conditions develop into the weekend.

So, the week is forecast to end with low pressure dominating the weather bringing showers or longer spells of rain to northern and western areas of the UK in particular on Friday. Some of the showers are forecast to be heavy and there is also a risk of thunder. The other noticeable feature for Northern Ireland and Western Scotland will be a strong south or south-westerly wind for a time. England and Wales will be at risk of a scattering of showers as a weak weather front moves eastwards during the day and takes the very warm and humid conditions away with it.

The weekend maintains a predominantly unsettled theme. Low pressure situated just to the north-west of the UK on Saturday will maintain a mixture of sunshine and showers for most areas. Some of the showers will be heavy and again thunder is a possibility, particularly across Scotland, Ireland and Northern England where some localised torrential downpours are possible. Showers are expected further south, but generally there should be more scattered with a greater likelihood of bright or sunny spells.

During the latter stages of the coming weekend attention turns towards the south-west of the UK as an area of low pressure, with its associated weather fronts, moves up into the UK during Sunday. There is some uncertainty over the track of this low pressure, but at the moment many areas during the first half of Sunday are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers, but with cloud thickening to bring more prolonged spells of rain from the south-west and this then spreading across most of Ireland, South-west England, Wales and up into Northern England. South-east England is likely to remain predominantly dry throughout most of Sunday, apart from a few isolated showers.

Temperatures over the weekend will be much lower than today (Thursday) with a cooler and fresher theme across many areas and highs ranging between 16C and 20C across northern and western areas and between 18C and 22C further south generally.

So, what about the medium and longer term?... As we now progress through the final summer month, is summer weather set to return? The answer to that is an almost certain no. Low pressure is forecast to remain an influential feature of the weather throughout the first half of August and there is quite high confidence in this prediction. As a result further showers or longer spells of rain are to be expected, with perhaps some heavy precipitation at times, especially across northern and western areas of the UK. What the second half of the month will bring is unknown, but the first half of the month looks distinctly unsettled.

Matt Hugo, Meteorologist

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